Trail Effect Of Climate Change On Agricultural Productivity Output In Nigeria 1975 – 2022

Project and Seminar Material for Agricultural and Bio-Environmental Engineering

Abstract

Climate change is a global phenomenon that has greater impacts on productivity through agricultural crop production, livestock production, energy and tourism. Countries all over the World have put adequate measures in place to combat or reduce its effects. This paper analyzed the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity in Nigeria. The paper did answer two specific objectives; to determine the effect of climate change on crop production and to evaluate the effect of climate change on livestock production in Nigeria. The study adopted time-series data on all the variables under study. Even though some studies considered the impacts of climate on crop production and on livestock production none actually considered the simultaneous effect on agricultural crop and livestock production. The study employed Ricardian Regression Model to analyze time-series data. A diagnostic research design was employed to carry out the study as it explored secondary sources of data which was analyzed using multivariate regression model and Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) was carried out to check the stationary of the data. The variables considered for the study were crop production and livestock production as dependent variables while temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity as independent variables. The data for crop production and livestock production were obtained from economic surveys (CBN) ministry of agriculture and International Livestock Research Institute while temperature, rainfall and relative humidity from Nigeria Metrological Department and World Bank. The study found out that temperature and relative humidity significantly affect agricultural productivity. Relative humidity was found to be positively related to agricultural productivity, temperature has negative relationship. The study recommended that government should sensitize the farmers on the need to carry out smart agriculture to reduce losses as a result of climatic change. The study also found out that rainfall positively related to agricultural productivity. Therefore, the study concluded that indeed climate change affect agricultural productivity in Nigeria.

Table of Content

Title Page
Certification
Dedication
Acknowledgement
Table of Content
List of Tables
Abstract

Chapter One:

Introduction

1.1 Background of the Study
1.2 Statement of the Problem
1.3 Objective of the Study
1.4 Research Questions
1.5 Research Hypothesis
1.6 Significance of the Study
1.7 Scope of the Study
1.8 Limitation of the Study
1.9 Definition of Terms
1.10 Organisations of the Study

Chapter Two:

Review of Literature

2.1 Conceptual Framework
2.2 Theoretical Framework
2.3 Empirical Review

Chapter Three:

Research Methodology

3.1 Introduction
3.2 Research Design
3.3 Theoretical Framework
3.4 Model Specification
3.5 Definitions and Measurement of Variables
3.5.1 Definition of variables used in the Study
3.6 Data Type and Source
3.7 Time Series Property Tests
3.7.1 Unit root test
3.7.2 Co-integration test
3.8 Data Analysis

Chapter Four:

Data Presentation and Analysis

4.1 Introduction
4.2 Descriptive Statistics
4.3 Time Series Analysis Results
4.3.1 Unit Root Test
4.3.2 Correlation Test
4.3.3 Co-integration Tests Results
4.4 Diagnostic Test Results
4.4.1 Serial Correlation LM Test
4.4.3 Ramsey RESET Test
4.5. Regression Analysis Findings
4.5.2 Effect of Climate Change on Livestock Production
4.5.3 Effect of other variable on agricultural productivity in Nigeria

Chapter Five:

Summary, Conclusion and Recommendation

5.1 Introduction
5.2 Summary of the study
5.3 Conclusion of the study
5.4 Recommendation
References

Chapter One

Introduction

1.1 Background of the Study

The performance of the agricultural economy is central to the overall wellbeing of the populace. Not only does it serve as source of livelihood for approximately one-third of the world‟s population (FAO, 2013), it is key to ensuring sustainable food security, employment opportunities amongst others. This is why different countries place high premium on agriculture and strive to develop and protect the sector.

Agriculture has a rich history in Nigeria, and the progressive roles it had played in the past are well known. Its antecedents in the lives of what is today referred to as Nigeria and its people both in social, political and economic spheres are equally well documented, including that of its colonial masters abroad. Agricultural produce serving as raw materials fast-tracked the industrial revolution in Europe pioneered by the British, fuelling its engines with palm oil from the coaster states of the Bight of Benin, in today‟s South-South Nigeria. Our ancestors, though technologically backward as compared to what obtains in our time today, were almost farming with bare hands using crude implements. Yet, they produced enough food crops to feed themselves like most other Africans and also produced cash crops for export abroad. From their first contact with the outside world through Trans Saharan trade to the end of Atlantic trade, our forebears were never found wanting. They responded accordingly to the demands of their time, the limitations notwithstanding. The emerging British capitalist economy and other European countries no longer had needs for trading slaves, after decades of devastating havocs wrecked on the burgeoning ancient economy by the illegitimate trade on humans. The dawn of legitimate trade became the order, occasioned by the emerging industrial revolution in Europe that required agricultural raw materials to drive. According to Eko (2009), Our fathers braced the challenges and exported the needed materials like palm oil, timbers, elephant tusks and other products running into millions of tones, that ensured that the fledging European economy particularly England survived and laid the basis for her future growth, development and influence.

Many reasons for the poor performance of the agricultural sector in Nigeria have been adduced, such as negligence of the sector by the government following the discovery of oil, the use of crude farming system among others. In the final analysis, these reasons hinge on capital and labour shift. But besides these factors, factors that are supplied by nature also play important roles. Among the natural resources, climate is the predominant factor that influences food production.

Climate is the primary determinant of agricultural productivity. Those that are most essential for food crop production are land, water, sunshine, air, temperature soil conditions, carbon dioxide etc. Climate, as defined by Oyekale,Bolaji and Olowas(2009) is the state of atmosphere, which is created by weather events over a period of time. A slight change in the climate will affect agriculture. Climate change is an important environmental, social and economic issue. It threatens the achievement of Millennium Development Goals aimed at poverty and hunger reduction, health improvement and environmental sustainability (UNDP, 2010).The national survey conducted between 2003 and 2004 shows that slightly above half of the population (51.6 percent) live below US$1 dollar per day and the relative national poverty incidence was found to be 54.4 percent (NBS, 2005; 2008).

The recent Human Development Report by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP, 2015) shows that about 64.4 and 83.7 percent of the population lives below $1.25 and$2 a day respectively. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1995)defined climate change as internal changes within the climate system or in the interaction among its components, because of changes in external forces either for natural reasons or because of human activity. The dangers of climate change is neither limited to any continent or country nor is the study been restricted to any discipline. Due to the increasing global awareness on thesubject, many experts (both economic and non-economic), have attempted to study the matter from diverse backgrounds.

The issues of climate change are important for Nigeria for several reasons, particularly, empirical evidences have shown that Nigeria‟s climate exhibits differing degree of temporal variability, particularly with regard to rainfall and temperature.

Evidently, Nigeria has recorded cases of climate changes overtime and at the same time falling per capita food production. Understanding and predicting these variations in climate and their effects on agricultural production in Nigeria as a whole and specifically on various components of aggregate agricultural output which include: crop production, livestock production, forestry production and fish production is essential for socio-economic progress of Nigeria. Most conflicts in Nigeria today are environmental based. Take for example, the conflicts between farmers and herdsmen. With the painful realization of serious desert encroachment in some Northern part of the country, the herdsmen with a pressing duty to affirm the survival of their cattle, have continuously pushed their way down the Southern area in search of water and vegetation for their cattle. The fight for space and the limited arable land resources have left trails of sadness in the wake of herdsmen/farmers‟ conflict. Nigeria is today more than ever before faced with serious challenge of sustaining domestic food production in the face of challenging climate variability that has transcended and affected all facet of live, especially agricultural output. The grave danger this problem poses to the economic wellbeing of the people coupled with likely short and long term implications on national economic development is the driving force for carrying out this study as it is expected that the findings of this work will help to proffer possible solution on how to cushion the rate of damage.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

The National Population Commission (NPC, 2014) has projected that Nigeria population will reach two hundred and forty million by 2020. This implies that food demand will increase with this projected increase in population. The capacity of Nigeria to ensure adequate food supply for her growing and expectant population is a function of the efficiency and sustainability of food production capacity in the country especially in the wake of global climate change that is threatening food production. Nigeria is already experiencing serious food production challenges.

These challenges manifest itself in the inability of the nation to produce enough food to feed its population. Available evidence shows that Nigeria is plagued with diverse ecological problems which have been directly linked to climate change. Farmers now face tragic crop failures, which reduce agricultural production in general, increase hunger, poverty, malnutrition and disease. Due to this threat, many farmers are abandoning farming for non-farming activities.

For more than a decade, it was thought in Nigeria that adopting food import as a policy would address the nation‟s food shortage problem. However, it has become obvious that such policy rather than bring solutions, has fuelled inflation, discouraged local production and created poverty among many farm households and helped to cause food insecurity. This therefore has left the government with no other better option than to seek possible means to improving domestic food production. Regrettably, improving domestic food supply in the country is faced with serious problem of climate change. Different sectors of agriculture in the country react differently to change in climate and unless the rates at which climate change impact on these sectors are investigated and curtailed, continuous government efforts to improving domestic food supply in the country will remain a mirage.

Admittedly, much efforts have been made towards increasing the availability and adoption of improved agricultural production in Nigeria both at the National and State levels. The Federal Government have initiated program aimed at improving agricultural production in Nigeria through promotion of improved production application such as fertilizer, hybrid seeds, pesticides, herbicides and better management practices. Several improved agricultural varieties that are drought-tolerant and low nitrogen-tolerant have equally been introduced to farmers. Despite these efforts, food production remained low thus raising question about the efficiency with which resources are used, and how they react to environmental changes.

Nigeria, in the recent times, has recorded serious flood disaster in the Southern part of the country that destroyed agricultural products worth billions of naira. In the Northern part of the country, serious desert encroachment is forcing herdsmen down the south to search for water and vegetation for their cattle and this is generating serious conflicts between the herders and local farmers. With little or no insurance coverage, many farmers are losing their fortune. The uncertainty of climate change impact is today creating fear, anxiety and gradual loss of confidence in the agricultural sector. If this is not properly handled, it might lead to wide spread food insecurity and defeat the government policy on domestic food production.

To avoid living in deliberate denial of the present reality facing the agricultural sector, there is a need to empirically examine the agricultural output-climate change nexus and the extent to which different agricultural outputs in Nigeria respond to abrupt climate change.

It is against this background that this study analyses the impact of climate change on aggregate agricultural production in Nigeria on one hand, and the impact of climate change on different components of agricultural outputs in Nigeria in both the short-run and long-run basis. To the best of my knowledge, no previous study has focused on disintegrating the impact of climate change in the different sectors of agriculture in the country as most research seems to approach the problem in aggregate standpoint.

1.3 Objectives of the Study

The general objective of the study is to determine trail effect of climate change on agricultural productivity output in Nigeria 1975 – 2022.

The specific objectives of the study are;

To determine the effect of climate change on agricultural crop production
To investigate the effect of climate change on livestock production

1.4 Research Questions

The study will seek to respond to the following questions;

What is the effect of climate change on Agricultural crop production?
What is the effect of climate change on livestock production?

1.5 Research Hypothesis

The study will test the validity of the following null hypothesis:

H01: There is no significant effect of climate change on agricultural crop production.
H02: There is no significant effect of climate change on livestock production

1.5 Significance of the Study

This study will be of great relevance to students, researchers, and agricultural science teachers across Nigeria as the study will serve as a source of information for them for research and study purposes. Also, farmers in all regions of Nigeria will find this study useful as the study discusses and uncovers the challenges imposed by climate change on agricultural productivity. The recommendation found in the last chapter of this study will also educate farmers on the best ways to manage climate change to avoid major impacts on crops.

1.7 Scope of the Study

This study focuses on ascertaining whether there is any relationship between climate change and agricultural productivity. Weather high temperatures result in an increase in agricultural productivity and weather poor high rain destroys agricultural activities and productivity. The study will therefore be limited to farms in Ebonyi State, Nigeria.

1.8 Limitation of the Study

The major limitations to the study are insufficient funding to involve many respondents in this research and carry out other logistics required in this study. Also, the time factor was another constraint where the researcher had to share available time between academic work and conducting this research within the given time frame.

Inadequate materials needed for the success of this study was another factor that limited this study. The sources of literature and the conducting of interviews in order to validate this research posed a barrier to the researcher.

1.8 Definition of Terms

Climate:

Climate is the long-term average of weather, typically averaged over a period of 30 years. More rigorously, it is the mean and variability of meteorological variables over a time span spanning from months to millions of years.

Climate Change:

This includes both global warming driven by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases and the resulting large-scale shifts in weather patterns.

Agriculture:

This is the act of practicing farming, including cultivation of the soil for the growing of crops and the rearing of animals to provide food, wool, and other products.

1.10 Organization of the Study

This research work is organized in five chapters, for easy understanding, as follows.

Chapter one is concern with the introduction, which consist of the (overview, of the study), historical background, statement of problem, objectives of the study, research hypotheses, significance of the study, scope and limitation of the study, definition of terms and historical background of the study.
Chapter two highlights the theoretical framework on which the study is based, thus the review of related literature.
Chapter three deals on the research design and methodology adopted in the study.
Chapter four concentrate on the data collection and analysis and presentation of finding.
Chapter five gives summary, conclusion, and recommendations made of the study.

Chapter Five

Summary, Conclusion and Policy Recommendation

5.1 Introduction

The chapter comprise of the summary, conclusion, policy recommendation and areas for further studies.

5.2 Summary of the Study

The study evaluated the effect of climate change on agricultural productivity in Nigeria for a period 1975-2022. Nigeria continues to strive to achieve food security as enshrined in sustainable development goals of 2015. The study presented an empirical result which provided the effect of climate change on agricultural productivity yielding a negative result for both crop and livestock production. The first objective of the study was to determine the effect of climate change on agricultural crop production and the second objective was to investigate the effect of climate change on livestock production in Nigeria. The results of the first objective show that crop production is negatively affected by changes in climatic conditions, the same results were obtained by the second objective.

Diagnostic tests were carried out at 5 per cent where rainfall was found to be stationary at level while temperature, relative humidity, log crop production and log of livestock production were stationary at first difference. Intuitively, the findings reviled that moderate level of temperature and rainfall would results to increase in crop and livestock production.

The objectives of the paper were met by carrying out regression analysis. The regression results for both the objectives yielded a negative relationship between the dependent and independent variables, leading to the conclusion that adverse climatic changes affect crop and livestock negatively in Nigeria.

5.3 Conclusion of the Study

The first objective of the study was to determine the effect of climate change on agricultural crop productivity. To achieve this objective a unit root and diagnostic tests of all the variables on time series data for the period running from 1975-2022 was conducted. Multiple regression analysis was carried out using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) Model on the four key variables; crop production and/or livestock production, relative humidity, average temperature, average rainfall. The results from the analysis showed that coefficient of relative humidity and average temperature were of the expected sign and their p values showed that they were of significant for the study. Relative humidity have positive coefficient to agricultural productivity while average temperature have a negative coefficient. Rainfall had a negative coefficient showing that adverse changes in rainfall amount a decrease in crop and livestock production. This means therefore, that changes in temperature, rainfall and humidity greatly affect crop productivity in Nigeria.

The second objective of the study is to evaluate the effect of climate change on livestock productivity. Table 4.12 in chapter 4 shows results of the regression analysis to achieve this objective. Even though relative humidity and average temperature are still significant, average temperature has more effect on livestock production than relative humidity because temperature causes decrease in livestock production in terms of reproduction, lactation and meat quality. At a given point in time the country has experienced drought and this point to a changing climate pattern. Livestock production is normally under threat to this ever changing climate pattern in Nigeria. This is because the natural grass that the livestock heavily rely for feed drying up and quality and quantity fluctuates every year.

In addition to this available water sources are drying up and therefore not available due to high temperature and unreliable rainfall experienced in Nigeria over the years. In North and North-Eastern parts of Nigeria, a number of livestock have been lost as a result of excessive thermal stress, inadequate rainfall, insufficient natural and artificial feeds and a number of diseases due to high temperatures. From this it is now clear that livestock production is very sensitive to climatic changes in Nigeria and therefore the study concludes that climate change has effect on livestock production. The study has satisfactorily achieved the two specific objectives; therefore, the study concludes that indeed climate change has effect on agricultural productivity in Nigeria.

5.4 Recommendation.

The main objective of this study was to determine the effect of climate change on agricultural productivity in Nigeria. The study found out that climate change affect agricultural productivity.

From the findings the following recommendations are made; the government needs to carry out sensitization program awareness on cause, impact, mitigation and adaptation to climate change. Given that the findings shows that temperature is significant in the study, therefore, drought tolerant livestock and crop varieties need to be given to farmers at a subsidized price to resist effect of climate change and also encourage scientific research on crop and livestock varieties that adapt to climate change to boost yield in agriculture to achieve objective one and two of the study.

The government should also encourage smart agriculture where farmers do not rely on rain feed agriculture but on scientific agriculture in order to achieve objective two of the study. For this to succeed, the government should supply farmers with drought resistant seeds and livestock variety to increase production and maintain food security in Nigeria as this is one the key pillars of four agenda of Jubilee government since the results show that climate change affect agricultural productivity hence mitigation, adaptation and resilience agriculture would increase crop and livestock production in Nigeria hence ensuring food security.

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