Time Series Analysis Of Road Accidents In Imo State 2002 – 2006 (A Case Study Of Federal Road Safety Commission Imo State)

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Project and Seminar Material for Mathematics and Statistics

Project and Seminar Material for Mathematics and Statistics


Dedication


I dedicate this work to God Almighty, the author and finisher of our lives.
And
All our students at various levels of study as well as my family.


Acknowledgement


My profound gratitude and indebtedness goes to my loving and caring parents, Mr. and Mrs. Sydney Amaefule for giving me the basic education which is a leader to attain this level and to become an illustrious son in future.

My thanks also go to my siblings, uncle Bethel Amaefule and others, may God bless them all.

I also acknowledge the support assistance from my friends Ike Joel, Nkem, Edu etc.

I appreciate the encouragement given to me by my supervisor Mr. Chime C.C.

My thanks also go to my Head of Department (H.O.D) Mr. Ajaroku, and special thanks to almighty God for the give of life and all source of our income.


Abstract


The deplorable and unsafe state of road traffic in Nigeria roads kept the road user helpless, vulnerable and endangered the life of road users.

Again, other road users such as the motorists, cyclists are psychologically reckless and unmindful of road user’s safely. Also the pronounced disorderliness and the admixture of various components of road traffic units such as motor vehicle, bicycles, motorcycles, pedestrians on narrowed poorly maintained road network further aggregates the confusion, tension, danger and crises experienced by road user.

This project work consequently agitates for the applications of users’ friendly road traffic environmental concepts (i.e. sustainable traffic system management) to enhanced and integrated road traffic environment (design, supply and maintenance), prioritization of road traffic safety educational programmes, and introduction of a functional and dynamic national road safety policy. This is with view to maintaining a safer road traffic environment for road users in Imo State.


Table Of Contents


  • Title page
  • Approval page
  • Dedication
  • Acknowledgement
  • Abstract
  • Table of contents

Chapter One

  • 1.1 Background
  • 1.2 Historical
  • 1.3 Statement of problem
  • 1.4 Objective / purpose of study
  • 1.5 Research questions
  • 1.6 Significance of study
  • 1.7 Scope / limitation of study

Chapter Two

  • 2.0 Literature review

Chapter Three

  • 3.1 Methodology
  • 3.2 Sources of data
  • 3.3 Method of data analysis

Chapter Four

  • 4.1 Analysis of data using linear regression
  • 4.2 Analysis of data using least square method
  • 4.3 Analysis of data using chi-square

Chapter Five

  • 5.1 Findings
  • 5.2 conclusion
  • 5.3 recommendation
  • Reference

Chapter One


1.1 Background Of The Study

For quite a long period, Africans and indeed, Nigerians have been deluded to believe or accept that road traffic accident is an integral part of human fate. This belief tended to inspire a considerable in difference to the road traffic accident syndrome because death and injury resulting from traffic accidents were accepted as part of human destiny.

Back in the 1990’s during the trail of oil boom, which as a matter of fact re-share wealth distribution and test in our safety were many devastating and long lasting side effects. Among such was influx or coming in of motor vehicles into a country where only few number of good roads exist. There is no doubt that this increase number vehicle charged the nations driving style.

A large percentage of Nigerian motorists took up the driving business as if they had a set number of people to maim and kill before sunset. The rate at which accidents happen on our roads has almost turned them into slaughter slabs making road traffic accidents Nigerian’s number two life taker after diseases.

No wonder the World Bank data revealed that the ratio of road traffic accidents especially the fatality rate in Nigeria was 10 times higher than the percentage obtained or recorded in developed countries.

The impact of that sudden awareness was translated into the motivation to create a safer road culture in Africa as a whole.

In Naibobi Kenya in 1984, the economic commission for Africa (ECA) organized the first African road safety congress. The congress revealed how awfully bloody road traffic accidents took place in Africa. In Nigeria between 1980 – 1988, 254, 492 cases of accidents were reported and about 78, 73 people were confirmed dead.

It was in this regard that the federal government of Nigeria established the FRSC with the honest intentions at conscioutizing Nigeria on road safety matter and accident prevention programmes, this call for engure and action should not be left alone for the FRSC, everyone should join hand to arrest the ugly incidence with the urgency it deserves.

The consequences of road accidents are both socially and economically distressing. In the cases where the bread winner of a family lost his / her life or becomes seriously in capacitated with little or nothing left behind for the dependants, hunger, starvation and diseases usually dwell among such family for dependants who found themselves in such hardship is to join undesirable elements in the society and acquire deplorable behavioural characteristics. The victims end up in becoming thieves, or drug addicts, prostitutes in this case constitute a menace to public peace and order.

Furthermore, many drop out of school for lack of find; others never have access to education for the same reason in this case illiteracy level rises.

Estimated loss of property, damages, and medical expenses administrative lost and other in Naira (N) according to a source (Nigerian Tribune wed march 13 – 1985) is worth one billion which I believe is more presently.

Before now, I have been passionately concerned and bothered about the form and characteristics of road traffic accidents.

It is my felt opinion that a reflection over the recent past will not only describe and analyze the situation for better understanding but will also help articulate and direct out future effort in most efficient and profitable manner. No doubt this study will provide comparative analytical frame work from 2002 – 2006.


1.2 Historical

Background of FRSC

The Federal Road Safety Commission (FRSC) was established with decree 45 of No 1998, the man that instituted it was Prof. Wole Soyinka, and FRSC signifies the honest intentions of government concientizing Nigerians on Road Safety matters and accident prevention programmes.

Since then Nigerians have shown a remarkable grasp of road safety, ideals the result of which is evident in the significant reduction of speed craze and rough driving and its negative trends.

Institutional arrangement and road users safety Nigeria. The Nigeria police force (Traffic) and the federal road safety institution responsible for the maintenance of road traffic safety in Nigeria they perform the following function among others;

  1. Appreciation of erring drivers
  2. Clearance of disables and accidented
  3. Provision of first and treatment
  4. Enforcement of speed unit
  5. Collection of accident data
  6. Issuance of drivers license, vehicle registration etc
  7. They conduct research into causes of accident and method of preventing and putting into use of the result of such researchers.

1.3 Statement Of Problem

Most transport drivers and cyclists tend to drive fast I n a bid to get as much as they can every day especially if their vehicle was ceased and they are supposed to bring in a minimum amount of money daily. Thus increased speed results in more road traffic accidents because of the difficulty in controlling the vehicles at high speeds.

Moreover, motorcycle is now the means of transports and the cheapest to acquire. However due to it go on two wheels and those road traffic accidents tends to occur with great frequency.


1.4 Objectives / Purpose Of Study

This research aims to solve the following problems;

  1. To estimate the trends of road accident in Imo State over the period of my study 2000 – 2006.
  2. Ascertain whether the frequency is independent of the moths of the year within my study.
  3. To determine the age groups mostly involved in road traffic accidents.
  4. To determine the nature of the relationship between period and rate of accident occurrence over the selected year of study.

1.5 Research Questions

Is the proportion of road traffic accident between and within the factors that causes accident?

Hypothesis Test

  • Ho: Incidence of road accident is independent of the type of vehicle involved.
  • Hi: Incidence of road accident is not independent of the type of vehicle involved.

1.6 Significance Of Study

The study will help the government, the general public, the Nigerian police and other agencies concerned with safety on our roads in the following ways;

  1. It will help Nigerian police, federal road safety commission and other authorities concerned with similar assignment to access their performance over the years.
  2. It will help the federal state government especially Imo state government to articulate police on road transportation and road safety. Such polices will form the basic of planning the social economic the performance of road users.
  3. The cause effect of road traffic accidents and the awareness derived from the study will awaken a general sense of responsibility and co-operation in the mind of road users. They will become partners in progress by making effort to protect lives and property on our roads.
  4. It will further indicate where and how resources should be directed to ensure efficient performance for instance, whether road safety measures should be into duce in some urban area.

1.7 Scope / Limitation Of Study

The scope of this research work is restricted to the urban cities in Imo state. Listed below are the limitation encountered during the research work.

The time available for this research work is too short to cover other states.

The resources available were very inadequate to expand the scope example the financial aspect of the resources.


I bet you, the complete material is fully loaded. This is just an excerpt. The Material is in MS-Word Format which you can easily edit and is comprehensive for a complete research work for this topic


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How to nail it on the head during your project defence


You are through with writing that project. Now what?

You have found yourself at that point where you have to defend what you have written. Of course you have to stand in front of your supervisor and other literary personalities to prove that you know what you wrote in your project paper. Unfortunately, the more you think about it, the more it looks like you are about to face a legion. It is not a war. But the emotion of dread welling up inside of you makes it look like one. So now you are asking yourself questions.

  • How am I going to start?
  • I hope I will do well enough to get an A.

You really want to nail it, but you need to come to terms with exactly how to get everything in perfect control. Especially your emotions of fear that seem to make a wreck of you every time you think about public speaking.
So here is the deal. I want to help you avoid that feeling that would ruin your precious moment if you dare to let it. And we are going to do it together.

I am going to highlight some very important tips to help you get in control for you to be comfortable enough to move from that feeling of DREAD to CONFIDENT; and making an awesome Impression for that great rating your supervisors should be giving to you so freely.

Consider these tips as you prepare for your defence. We will be taking them one after the other so here we go.


Watch Your Body Language And Keep It Confident:

Can you tell that a person is falling apart if they look confident? … If I can second guess you rightly, am sure you answered no to that question. Remind yourself that you need to come out that way. Now this might seem like a huge big deal when you are dealing with the foreboding. Maintaining a poise of confidence is very important. So find your most comfortable position, sitting or standing and draw up your body. You must exude confidence. It is something you need to do for yourself. People can only see what you allow your body language to show. So you must endeavour to put that out. Remember the story of David and Goliath? … At the end of your defence day, you want to be David.


Dress In Your Most Comfortable And Impressive:

Am sure this one is a no brainer. However I must highlight that you choose comfortable pieces. You don’t want to look so good and yet look like you were forced to wear something that does not belong to you. It’s great to ensure that as impressive as your clothes are on you, that they are also very comfortable.


Speak With Authority:

Going hand to hand with that aura of confidence is your most powerful asset:your words. If you look that confident, your words must not come out like whimpers. To be able to pull this off, you definitely need to speak as deliberately as possible in expressing yourself. Let them also hear what they see.


Use, Your Gestures:

I have often found this to come to my rescue in dealing with shyness and conveying my confidence. Usually it gives you an edge to also drive home your point. You must, however, ensure that you do not over use it. It doesn’t mean that your hands should be flying all over the place. That would be absolutely unnecessary. If you do this well, after a while you will realize that you are not as self-conscious as you used to be at the very start. For most situations, it would have completely disappeared altogether; leaving a really confident you talking.


Have A Good Opening And Closing Line:

Make sure you have perfected a good opening line. You should also be armed with a good closing line too. Try and rehearse it to a friend. If for the first time you presented it, your friend does not say “wow, that’s beautiful” or something like that; just know you need to keep refining it until you get the perfect line. Both opening and closing lines will go a long way in how impressed your panel gets to rate you high.


Make Sure You Know Your Work:

Certainly you should understand how important it is to know your own work from start to finish. Not having in-depth knowledge of your own work is tantamount to a suicide mission. Why should you kill yourself?
When all is said and done, this is what you came to defend in the first place. You should know your work from A to Z.


Prepare For The Questions:

Now this part is truly essential. You must be sure you do not floor all the good work you did on your presentation by not answering correctly. You must pay attention to the questions you are asked to be sure you will give the right answer. Many people get it wrong at this stage and spoil their good presentation. When you do not understand any question do endeavour to ask the person to expatiate what they mean before you answer.


These tips are by no means exhaustive, but applying these tips will give you some necessary advantage you need for a great outcome. Of course that outcome would mean that you eventually earn all your points on this project.


The structure of a good project work


Undergraduate projects in Nigeria is a prerequisite for graduation amongst Nigerian tertiary students who will which to obtain bachelors degree in their respective courses of study such as accounting, banking and finance, business administration and a host of others. Writing an undergraduate project in Nigeria for final year students entails a lot both financially and otherwise. Being able to develop any final year project depends on getting a researchable topic whether it is Accounting Undergraduate project topics, Banking and Finance research topics or banking and finance project topics and materials and it all requires diligent hard work of students who are willing to develop best undergraduate projects in Nigeria and graduate in flying colors.

A typical Undergraduate project in Nigerian tertiary institutions can be said to be divided into five or six chapters depending on the format of the school and course of study which are


1. Introduction

The introduction of an undergraduate project states the main research problem and research argument. What precisely the study is all about and why it is important. It looks at the originality of the research work and how it will fill the gap in other studies. Justification for a research undergraduate topic should not be lengthy before it has been explicitly stated.

Below are the contents in chapter one of an undergraduate research project which includes;

  • Background of the study,
  • Statement of the problem,
  • Objectives or aims of the study,
  • The research questions,
  • Research hypothesis,
  • Significance of the study,
  • Scope of the study,
  • Limitations of the study and
  • Operational definition of terms.

2. Literature review

Literature review of any undergraduate research work, be it business administration project topics or Economics project topics just to mention a few is very critical to securing a high grade in one’s project work. The literature review of a research process uncovers what other writers have written about the student’s topic. A student’s undergraduate research work should include a discussion or review of what is known about the subject and how that knowledge was acquired. The review could conclude with a brief summary of the literature and its implications. The contents of the literature review are the theoretical review, conceptual framework, empirical review and summary of literature review.

3. Research Methodology

This section includes a description of the research methods used in the undergraduate research work such as the sample size, data collection methods, measurement instruments, research data analysis procedures and the population from which the sample was selected.  This section also describes the method used in selecting the sample or samples, validation and reliability of the instruments used in the research work. There are different research statistical techniques used in undergraduate research work such as SPSS, e-views etc.


4. Results & Discussion

This section presents and discusses the data analysis results used in an undergraduate research work, the results of each analysis is being summarized, tabulated, and then discussed for each research question.  Then for each research hypothesis, the statistical test of significance selected and applied to the data is briefly described, followed by a statement indicating whether the hypothesis was supported or not supported.  In presenting the result analyses/summary in an undergraduate project tables and figures and or graph are used to add clarity to the presentation.


5. Summary, Conclusions And Recommendations

This section summarizes the findings of the study in an easy to understand manner.  It also explains the practical implications of those findings, and points to recommended directions for future research in that area.


References:

This is where every source cited in the undergraduate research work is being included. Every undergraduate research work must be properly referenced for its authenticity.

SAMPHINA ACADEMY

SAMPHINA ACADEMY

Samuel Obiora Blessed is the CEO and founder of Samphina Academy (samphina.com.ng) a.k.a Nigeria Students Media, the youngest engineering graduate of Federal Polytechnic Nekede in 2017 and the engine brain behind this great platform. He is the man behind the scene, filled with many potentials, a musician as well as a pro developer with the interest of Nigerian students at heart.

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