Time Series Analysis Of Road Accidents In Imo State 2002 – 2006 (A Case Study Of Federal Road Safety Commission Imo State)

Project and Seminar Material for Mathematics and Statistics

Project and Seminar Material for Mathematics and Statistics


Abstract


The deplorable and unsafe state of road traffic in Nigeria roads kept the road user helpless, vulnerable and endangered the life of road users.

Again, other road users such as the motorists, cyclists are psychologically reckless and unmindful of road user’s safely. Also the pronounced disorderliness and the admixture of various components of road traffic units such as motor vehicle, bicycles, motorcycles, pedestrians on narrowed poorly maintained road network further aggregates the confusion, tension, danger and crises experienced by road user.

This project work consequently agitates for the applications of users’ friendly road traffic environmental concepts (i.e. sustainable traffic system management) to enhanced and integrated road traffic environment (design, supply and maintenance), prioritization of road traffic safety educational programmes, and introduction of a functional and dynamic national road safety policy. This is with view to maintaining a safer road traffic environment for road users in Imo State.


Table Of Contents


Preliminary Page(s)

  • Title page
  • Approval page
  • Dedication
  • Acknowledgement
  • Abstract
  • Table of contents

Chapter One

1.0 Introduction

  • 1.1 Background
  • 1.2 Historical
  • 1.3 Statement of problem
  • 1.4 Objective / purpose of study
  • 1.5 Research questions
  • 1.6 Significance of study
  • 1.7 Scope / limitation of study

Chapter Two

2.0 Literature review


Chapter Three

3.0 Research Methodology

  • 3.1 Methodology
  • 3.2 Sources of data
  • 3.3 Method of data analysis

Chapter Four

4.0 Data Analysis

  • 4.1 Analysis of data using linear regression
  • 4.2 Analysis of data using least square method
  • 4.3 Analysis of data using chi-square

Chapter Five

5.0 Summary of Findings, Conclusion and Recommendation

  • 5.1 Findings
  • 5.2 Conclusion
  • 5.3 Recommendation
  • Reference

Chapter One


Introduction

1.1 Background Of The Study

For quite a long period, Africans and indeed, Nigerians have been deluded to believe or accept that road traffic accident is an integral part of human fate. This belief tended to inspire a considerable in difference to the road traffic accident syndrome because death and injury resulting from traffic accidents were accepted as part of human destiny.

Back in the 1990’s during the trail of oil boom, which as a matter of fact re-share wealth distribution and test in our safety were many devastating and long lasting side effects. Among such was influx or coming in of motor vehicles into a country where only few number of good roads exist. There is no doubt that this increase number vehicle charged the nations driving style.

A large percentage of Nigerian motorists took up the driving business as if they had a set number of people to maim and kill before sunset. The rate at which accidents happen on our roads has almost turned them into slaughter slabs making road traffic accidents Nigerian’s number two life taker after diseases.

No wonder the World Bank data revealed that the ratio of road traffic accidents especially the fatality rate in Nigeria was 10 times higher than the percentage obtained or recorded in developed countries.

The impact of that sudden awareness was translated into the motivation to create a safer road culture in Africa as a whole.

In Naibobi Kenya in 1984, the economic commission for Africa (ECA) organized the first African road safety congress. The congress revealed how awfully bloody road traffic accidents took place in Africa. In Nigeria between 1980 – 1988, 254, 492 cases of accidents were reported and about 78, 73 people were confirmed dead.

It was in this regard that the federal government of Nigeria established the FRSC with the honest intentions at conscioutizing Nigeria on road safety matter and accident prevention programmes, this call for engure and action should not be left alone for the FRSC, everyone should join hand to arrest the ugly incidence with the urgency it deserves.

The consequences of road accidents are both socially and economically distressing. In the cases where the bread winner of a family lost his / her life or becomes seriously in capacitated with little or nothing left behind for the dependants, hunger, starvation and diseases usually dwell among such family for dependants who found themselves in such hardship is to join undesirable elements in the society and acquire deplorable behavioural characteristics. The victims end up in becoming thieves, or drug addicts, prostitutes in this case constitute a menace to public peace and order.

Furthermore, many drop out of school for lack of find; others never have access to education for the same reason in this case illiteracy level rises.

Estimated loss of property, damages, and medical expenses administrative lost and other in Naira (N) according to a source (Nigerian Tribune wed march 13 – 1985) is worth one billion which I believe is more presently.

Before now, I have been passionately concerned and bothered about the form and characteristics of road traffic accidents.

It is my felt opinion that a reflection over the recent past will not only describe and analyze the situation for better understanding but will also help articulate and direct out future effort in most efficient and profitable manner. No doubt this study will provide comparative analytical frame work from 2002 – 2006.


1.2 Historical

Background of FRSC

The Federal Road Safety Commission (FRSC) was established with decree 45 of No 1998, the man that instituted it was Prof. Wole Soyinka, and FRSC signifies the honest intentions of government concientizing Nigerians on Road Safety matters and accident prevention programmes.

Since then Nigerians have shown a remarkable grasp of road safety, ideals the result of which is evident in the significant reduction of speed craze and rough driving and its negative trends.

Institutional arrangement and road users safety Nigeria. The Nigeria police force (Traffic) and the federal road safety institution responsible for the maintenance of road traffic safety in Nigeria they perform the following function among others;

  1. Appreciation of erring drivers
  2. Clearance of disables and accidented
  3. Provision of first and treatment
  4. Enforcement of speed unit
  5. Collection of accident data
  6. Issuance of drivers license, vehicle registration etc
  7. They conduct research into causes of accident and method of preventing and putting into use of the result of such researchers.

1.3 Statement Of Problem

Most transport drivers and cyclists tend to drive fast I n a bid to get as much as they can every day especially if their vehicle was ceased and they are supposed to bring in a minimum amount of money daily. Thus increased speed results in more road traffic accidents because of the difficulty in controlling the vehicles at high speeds.

Moreover, motorcycle is now the means of transports and the cheapest to acquire. However due to it go on two wheels and those road traffic accidents tends to occur with great frequency.


1.4 Objectives / Purpose Of Study

This research aims to solve the following problems;

  1. To estimate the trends of road accident in Imo State over the period of my study 2000 – 2006.
  2. Ascertain whether the frequency is independent of the moths of the year within my study.
  3. To determine the age groups mostly involved in road traffic accidents.
  4. To determine the nature of the relationship between period and rate of accident occurrence over the selected year of study.

1.5 Research Questions

Is the proportion of road traffic accident between and within the factors that causes accident?

Hypothesis Test
  • Ho: Incidence of road accident is independent of the type of vehicle involved.
  • Hi: Incidence of road accident is not independent of the type of vehicle involved.

1.6 Significance Of Study

The study will help the government, the general public, the Nigerian police and other agencies concerned with safety on our roads in the following ways;

  1. It will help Nigerian police, federal road safety commission and other authorities concerned with similar assignment to access their performance over the years.
  2. It will help the federal state government especially Imo state government to articulate police on road transportation and road safety. Such polices will form the basic of planning the social economic the performance of road users.
  3. The cause effect of road traffic accidents and the awareness derived from the study will awaken a general sense of responsibility and co-operation in the mind of road users. They will become partners in progress by making effort to protect lives and property on our roads.
  4. It will further indicate where and how resources should be directed to ensure efficient performance for instance, whether road safety measures should be into duce in some urban area.

1.7 Scope / Limitation Of Study

The scope of this research work is restricted to the urban cities in Imo state. Listed below are the limitation encountered during the research work.

The time available for this research work is too short to cover other states.

The resources available were very inadequate to expand the scope example the financial aspect of the resources.


Chapter Five


5.0 Summary Of Findings, Recommendation And Conclusion

5.1 Summary Of Findings

Generally one will agree with me that road traffic accidents are caused by human factors such as excessive speeding, lack of judgment, reckless default, mechanical default, improper overtaking among others.

Based on the results of the study the following points can be noted;

  1. There is no definite pattern as to number of road accidents that occur within the year. That is to say that from the study, there are no months that one can conclusively say are peak periods. There were no definite seasonal variations as well. Also, in contrary to what was expected because it was previously assumed that there would be an increase in the number of road accidents towards the end of the year, since most people travel to the village for Christmas and New Year celebrations. It was also expected that there would be higher number of road accidents in the wet season (April, September) than the dry season (November – March).
  2. A greater percentage of people involved to be males than females. This was not surprising considering that in our environment our work force comprises of male than females and as such is more on the road than females.
  3. In 2004, most of the reported pedestrians. Thus implies that over the past years there has been an increase in the number of cyclist compared to motorists. This is most likely due to the low cost of motorcycle compared with cars and buses.

5.2 Conclusion

Road traffic accidents are a blessing to no one they constitute a nuisance when they occur, they bring sorrow into families due to loss of their loved ones, constitute a drain to the work force and creates financial surclem both to the surviving relations and to the government. However, most traffic accidents are preventable, if simple measures already outlined are implemented. It is hoped that this study will help create awareness into the menace poised by road traffic accidents and that steps will subsequently be taken to reduce its occurrence to the minimum.


5.3 Recommendation

Based on the outcome of the study, the following recommendations can be given to minimize the number of road accidents that occur within Imo state;

  1. The government should make every effort to existing roads and create new ones. A lot of roads within Imo state are in a state of disrepair due to lack of maintenance; some of which are undergoing repairs recently as I learnt, like Aba road. Due to the poor conditions of these areas and becomes potential road hazards for the unwary driver. Also, the governments should make effort to create new roads dispose to road traffic accidents.
  2. The government should include road safety into school curriculum at the primary or secondary school level or both, so that children are taught early about road use because it is easier for them to grasp it than when they are finally grown adults

Time Series Analysis Of Road Accidents In Imo State 2002 – 2006 (A Case Study Of Federal Road Safety Commission Imo State)


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Time Series Analysis Of Road Accidents In Imo State 2002 – 2006 (A Case Study Of Federal Road Safety Commission Imo State)


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