Time Series Analysis On The Rate Of Typhoid Fever Cases In Abia State From 2001-2010 (A Case Study Of Absuth)

Project and Seminar Material for Mathematics and Statistics

Time Series Analysis On The Rate Of Typhoid Fever Cases In Abia State From 2001-2010 (A Case Study Of Absuth)


Abstract


This research work is concerned with the time series analysis on the rate of typhoid fever cases in Abia state from 2001-2010, with Abaia state university teaching hospital Aba as a case study. This survey was carried out using time series analysis to ascertain whether there is a significant increase in the seasonal variation in the reported cases of typhoid fever. Finally, following the inferences drawn from the data collected for the survey, it was discovered that there was a strong seasonal variation in some quarter of the period under review, which can be attributed to some certain factors like raining season. Prevention and control measures were recommended for fighting/combating this problem on the rate of typhoid fever cases in our society.


Chapter One


1.0 Introduction

1.1 Background of the Study

Typhoid Fever is a world wide disease which creates a very serious public healthy problem. In many under develop countries; the word health organization (WHO) estimated that about one person out of ever hundred (100) is suffering from typhoid fever. The also identify typhoid as a serious public health problem which incidence is highest in children and young adults between 5-19 years old.

Typhoid fever is a systematic disease caused by dissemination of salmonella typhoid or salmonella paratyphoid mainly characterized by fever was called because of it’s common similarity to typhus. It was clearly defined pathologically as a unique disease of it’s own, it is a common world wide illness, transmitted by the ingestion of food or water contaminated with the faces of an infected person, which contain the bacterium salmonella enterica. The bacteria then perforate through the intestinal wall and are phagocytosed by macrophages.

According to medial dictionary (Budelka, K.G. 1971), which reveals the typhoid fever as an infection which is usually spread by contamination of food, milk or water supply with salmonella typhi (S. typhil), either directly by sewage or indirectly by flies or by faulty personal hygiene. Symptomless carries harbouring the germ in the gall bladder and excreting it in their stools are the main sources of out breaks of disease in this country. The average incubation period is 10-14 days. A progressive fedric illness marks the onset of disease which develops as the germ invades tymphoid tissues, including that of the small intestine (peyers patches) to profuse diarrhocal (pea soup) stools which may become frankly haemorrhagic, ultimate recovery usually begins at the end of the third week. A rose coloured rash may appear on the upper abdomen and back at the end of the first week.


1.2 State of Problem

Over the last decade, there has been alarming increase in the rate of recorded cases of typhoid fever in our various hospitals especially in Abia state. This has led to a very serious questions on the minds of the citizenry in particular and the professionals in our medical field in general. Ordinary, since typhoid fever is generally associated with a lot of symptoms such as fever headache, cough etc. these however make it a complicated disease with a very serious economic and social effect on the victims. This study seeks to find the prevalent rate of typhoid fever and suggest possible solutions in preventing it.


1.3 Aims and Objectives

The following are the aims and objectives of this study.

  1. To estimate the trend of the disease (typhoid fever) whether it is increasing or decreasing for this period of 2001-2010.
  2. To estimate the seasonal variation of the recorded cases of typhoid fever from 2001-2010.
  3. To predict rate of prevalent in future.

1.4 Significance of the Study

This project is significant in the sense that health problem imposed by typhoid fever in this part of the world makes it a serious health issue that requires adequate attention and care. This research work will be of great significance in the following ways:

  1. This study will help the hospital management, the state government and the general public to know the particular months or quarter of the year that were mostly affected by typhoid fever in order to carryout enlightenment campaign towards reducing the incidence of the disease.
  2. If the trend of reported cases of typhoid fever is found to be on increase, it will enable the hospital management to put intensify effort towards applying more preventive measures in order to combat the disease.

1.5 Statement of Hypothesis

  1. Ho: There is no significant increase in the trend of recorded cases of typhoid fever from 2001-2010
    Hi: There is significant increase in the trend of recorded cases of typhoid fever from 2001-2010.
  2. Ho: There is no seasonal variation in the recorded cases of typhoid fever from 2001-2010
    Hi: There is seasonal variation in the recorded cases of typhoid fever from 2001-2010.

1.6 Scope of Study

This study is designed to cover Aba, the commercial city of Abia state. Aba is a city and a big trading center in Abia state. It will also cover a period of ten (10) years (2001-2010).


1.7 Limitation of the Study

The major limitation to this research work was basically on the collection of data and information is regarded as confidential, besides there was inadequate asses to the data due to reluctant attitude of the hospital medical record department to release the data on time as well as the limited available literature which the researcher was able to lay her hands on after much time wasted.


1.8 Definition of Terms

Anorexia:

Lack of appetite for food.

Salmonella Typh:

This is a bacteria that causes typhoid fever.

Pasbarisation:

This is heating milk to a high temperature for a very short time.

Prevalence:

Is a measure of the frequency of existing disease at a given time.

Salmonellae:

A tribe of schizomycetes.

Schizomyestes:

A class of vegetable organisms which usually contain no photosynthetic pigmen and reproduce by fusion.

Contagious:

Is when a disease or infection can be easily passed from one person to another through infection.


Chapter Five


5.0 Summary, Conclusion and Recommendation

5.1 Summary of Finding

Based on the findings, we discovered that the rate of typhoid fever has being on increase in recent times in Nigeria and this has created a great challenge to our professional in medical sector in particular and the society at large, considering the revelation from world health organization (WHO) that about one person out of every hundred (100) person’s suffering from typhoid fever which is caused by dissemination of salmonella typhi (S. typhi) of salmonella paratyphi mainly characterized by fever and abdominal pain.

However, the modes of transmission of typhoid fever which has being revealed to include through eating or drinking contaminated food or water and through contract with the actually infected person.

The statistical techniques employed in the analysis of data in this project work is time series analysis to determine if there is increase in trend and seasonal variations in the reported incident of typhoid fever from (2001-2010).

Therefore the summary from this research work revealed the following:

  • The total number of reported cases of typhoid fever from 2001-2010 was 1.272
  • The estimated seasonal indices shows that there was 1.22 in the third quarter of the period in review, which is July

August and September which could be attributed to the raining season because salmonella typhi, the bacteria responsible for the disease is usually gotten from infected foods and vegetables generally in our environment because water flood the whole place after rainfall thereby causing much contamination.

  • Furthermore, the predicted quarterly cases of typhoid fever for 2011 and 2012 health year, shows that rate of the incidence will is 264 in 2011 and 13 232 in 2012 health year.
  • Finally, this research work revealed that typhoid fever can be prevented and control though the improvement of sanitary measures, since the bacteria responsible for this illness only survive on human host and are spread by contaminated food and water, and infected persons should go to hospital for adequate treatment not involving in self –medication.

5.2 Conclusion

In view of the findings of this research survey, which seeks to investigate whether there is an increase in trend and seasonal variation in the reported cases of typhoid fever in Abia state. The following conclusions was dream from the findings, which include that between the period of 2001-2010, the trend has been on increase and we conclude that there is seasonal variation in the third quarter of the year under study which is July, August and September usually associated with raining season.


5.3 Recommendation

Based on summary of findings and conclusion draw in this research survey, the following recommendation is made,

  1. Typhoid fever infection could be reduced in our environment by improvement in hygiene (like proper removal of sewage).
  2. Individuals should boil their drinking water for used and cook their food properly.
  3. Insects like files and cockroaches should be take care of and hands should always be washed before eating with them.
  4. Vegetables and fruits should be washed properly before being eaten.

Generally, government should provide adequate drugs for the treatment of typhoid fever in government own hospital at a reduced cost so that it can be affordably by low income earners and public enlightenment campaign should be carried out in media, market to sensitize the general public on the causes, models of transmission, symptoms, treatments and ways of preventing and controlling this incidence of typhoid fever.


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