Time Series Analysis On Rainfall Pattern In Calabar Municipality From 2002-2014 (A Case Study Of Nigerian Meteological Centre Calabar)

Project and Seminar Material for Mathematics and Statistics

Time Series Analysis On Rainfall Pattern In Calabar Municipality From 2002-2014 (A Case Study Of Nigerian Meteological Centre Calabar)


Chapter One


Introduction

1.1. Background of the study

Nigeria’s population and economic development are linked to climate sensitive activities including rainfall. An understanding of current and historical rainfall trends and variation is inevitable to the country’s future economic and tourism development.

Rainfall is the most important natural factor that goes a long way in determining a lot of things especially agricultural production in Nigeria, especially in the southern part of Nigeria. The changes and variability associated with rainfall and the pattern of extreme high or low precipitation are very important for agriculture as well as the economic development of the state. It is a well-known fact that the pattern of rainfall is changing on both the global and the regional scales due to global warming (Hulme et al, 1998, Kayano, 2008). As the moves to encourage the agricultural sector in other toavoid food scarcity continues to gain ground and acceptability, information on rainfall variability is of essence for the design of water supply and supplemental agricultural irrigation schemes and the evaluation of alternative cropping and of soil water management plans. Much as long rainfall records are mostly available in many countries, little use is made of this information because of the unpredicted nature of the records.(Mina and Sayedul, 2012).

It is important to state that rainfall of Nigeria and West Africa in generally is influenced by the dynamics of continental air mass and maritime air mass which meet along a slanting surface called Inter-Tropical Discontinuity (ITD) (Odekunle, 2004). Varying degrees of convective activity and precipitation takes place at the south of ITD while little or no cloud development or precipitation occur in the northern part of ITD (Ilesanmi, 1972).


1.2. Statement of the general problem

The current pattern of rainfall in Cross River State has been a source of concern to the inhabitants, especially those who rely on it for their economic and tourist activities. Therefore, it is on this basis that this study seeks to examine the trend of rainfall in Calabar state with the view to ascertain the feasibility of government’s effort towards improved agriculture; to enhance food security in the state.


1.3. Significance of the study

This study would be of help to tourists in planning the time of their visits. This study would equally be of help to the policy makers of Cross River state, agriculturists and researchers who are interested in the rainfall pattern of Cross River state.


1.4. Objectives of the study

  1. To study the pattern of rainfall in calabar municipality.
  2. To know if rainfall pattern affects tourism and economic development.

1.5. Scope of the study

This study is limited to the time series analysis on rainfall pattern in Calabar municipality from 2002-2014


1.6. Research hypothesis

  • H0: Rainfall pattern does not affect the tourism and economic development of Calabar
  • H1: Rainfall pattern affects the tourism and economic development of Calabar

1.7. Definition of terms

Trend:

A general direction in which a situation is changing or developing.

Variability:

The fact that something is likely to change

Tourism:

The business activity connected with providing accommodation, services and entertainment for people who are visiting a place for pleasure.

Policy:

A plan or action agreed or chosen by a political party, business or a government.


Chapter Five


Summary of Findings and Conclusion

5.1 Summary of Findings

The objectives of this study were to study the pattern of rainfall in Calabar municipality and to know if rainfall pattern affects tourism and economic development. Findings from the study revealed that the amount of rainfall from the year 2002 to 2014 has reduced tremendously.


5.2 Conclusion

The first goal of the study was to determine whether recent climate variations in Calabar are in anyway unusual in the context of the 50-60 years of rainfall and temperature records. Summer monsoon rainfall in Calabar has been below average during 1980-1990 but this does not appear to be outside the range of variability found over last 60 years. The second goal of this study was to determine if rainfall and temperature variations in Calabar over the past century could be described by relatively simple relationship of trend. Both rainfall and temperature range appeared to vary coherently in the study areas. The relationship found was an inverse one and only with Daily Temperature Range (DTR). The results can be up-dated regularly from now on therefore providing a useful tool for monitoring climate variation and change in this part of Australia. The periodic nature of rainfall and temperature may have important implications for climate change over the years along the coast of Calabar.

More particularly, DTR was noted to be inversely related to Calabar rainfall in both summer and winter. Inter-annually, the lower DTR is associated with higher rainfall and vice versa. The relationship between DTR and Calabar rainfall has been high and stable over the record period. Other data analysis not presented showed that summer rainfall variations are related more closely to maximum than minimum temperatures, with higher temperatures associated with lower rainfall. Lower rainfall in winter tends to be linked with higher maximum and lower minimum temperatures. These relationships were relatively stable over time. The cause of the decline in the Daily Temperature Range (DTR) in Calabar is unclear. From 2002-2014, DTR was lowest in Calabar during 1980 and this period was also characterized by lower than average rainfall.

This analysis demonstrated the use of time series and spectral method as an effective method for studying variations of temperature and rainfall data in that a cyclic nature of the two measures were found easily. The analysis of climatic data is valuable particularly to understand the complexity of the variations associated with global climate change. Clearly, the daily temperature and daily rainfall were not related directly, while DTR and rainfall were. Increases in DTR persist suggest lower rainfall and if this trend is then taken over time then that is not predicted by the literature on climate change. A multivariate and dynamic correlation technique may be useful here and this will be the focus of the first author’s future research (Ismail et al., 2009).


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