Time Series Analysis Of People Suffering From Malaria, Typhoid And Diohrea (A Case Study Of Abia State University Teaching Hospital, Aba)

Project and Seminar Material for Mathematics and Statistics

Project and Seminar Material for Mathematics and Statistics


Abstract


This research project is avert crucial study for Abia State teaching hospital Aba. It was motivated by the necessity to improve the data of people suffering from malaria, typhoid and cholera in Abia State from 1991- 2006.

The chapter one of this project gives an insight on the objective of the study which include determing if there is increase in the average number of patients suffering from malaria and to know whether this has any existing relationship among the average people suffering from typhoid the approaches to illness, its significance on patients

The chapter two reviews so many literatures on the time series analysis of the various sickness.

The data used for this project was a secondary data gotten from the Abia State teaching hospital Aba and a simple on malaria, typhoid and cholera was taken to analyze using time series and regression analysis.

Finally, the research recommended that teaching should organized enlightment programme on the need to have a regular routine check up against in the state.


Table Of Contents


Preliminary Page(s)

  • Title page
  • Certification page
  • Dedication
  • Acknowledgement
  • Abstract
  • Table of contents

Chapter One

1.0 Introduction

  • 1.1 History background of the study
  • 1.2 Aim Objectives of the study
  • 1.3 Significance of the study
  • 1.4 Statement of the problem
  • 1.5 Statement of Hypothesis
  • 1.6 Purpose of the study
  • 1.7 Limitation of the study
  • 1.8 Scope of the study

Chapter Two

2.0 Literature Review

  • 2.1 Introduction
  • 2.2 Definition of time series
  • 2.3 Component of time series
  • 2.4 Time series model
  • 2.5 Estimation of linear trend
  • 2.6 Time series application of the study of disease
  • 2.7 Historical background of the case of study
  • 2.8 Definition of term.

Chapter Three

3.0 Research Methodology

  • 3.1 Introduction
  • 3.2 Sources of data
  • 3.3 Sampling procedures
  • 3.4 Method of data analysis
  • 3.4.1 Time series analysis
  • 3.4.2. Regression analysis
  • 3.5 Simple regression
  • 3.6 Depersonalization of time series

Chapter Four

4.0 Data Presentation and Analysis

  • 4.1 Introduction
  • 4.2 Data analysis
  • 4.3 Estimating parameter
  • 4.3 Regression analysis

Chapter Five

5.0 Conclusion and Recommendation

  • 5.1 Introduction
  • 5.2 Conclusion
  • 5.3 Recommendation
  • References

Chapter One


1.0 Introduction

This project deals with the peculiarity that human health is extremely important in every society. This is because of the fact that a society filled with unhealthy people cannot excel both in society development and otherwise.

After the creation of Abia State in 1991, the state government put much of their attention on agriculture, education, health service industries and other institution of finance.

In the health sector, the government major duty is to provide enabling environment in such a way to equip health center and hospitals in other to maintain or achieve good and for her citizens. Available audience from health care authorites has it that the rate of admission into hospitals is on the increase of people suffering various illness, which are numerous to mention. Some of these disease has contributed to the loss of human life even the life of those who could have reshaped the economy or the society.

The situation is not safe for the future leaders because they are likely to suffer from these deadly disease which will be prevented or controlled. The fact is that many researcher has been to avail the cause of this disease and some lasting solution to some of them. However, some statistical work has been carried out to ascertain the occurrence of these disease which follows specific pattern or procedure over the year. And this will enable us to know what this sudy will achieve.


1.1 Historical Background Of The Study

Abia State university Teaching Hospital was established in the year 1994 by Col. Ike Chinyere Nwosu (RTD) who was the military administrator of Abia State. Abia State university Teaching Hospital was formerly known as the Abia general hospital for training or medical doctors for the Abia State college of Medical and health science, Uturu. The decision was seen by many as a grant to strive in provision of quality tertiary health care service for our citizens in the eastern heartland including Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Ebonyi, Imo and some part of Bayelsa and Rivers.

In 1995, when the second management board of teaching hospital was appointed, the board was specifically changed to Ngoro pursue and achieve the accredited both by National University commission (NUC) and the Medical and Neutral Council of Nigeria (MNCN) for the award of agree and graduation of medical doctor. Since then, the teaching hospital has grasped with commitment mission and challenge which include the provision of high level tertiary health care, training of medical and para-medical personnel and research. In June 1996, with the collaboration of the college of medical and health science of Abia State University, Uturu, it graduated its pioneer batch medical doctor numbering nine and since then, subsequent other batches of medical doctor have passed out of the institution. ABSUTH was designated as a baby friendly hospital by the World Health Organization (WHO).

Based on the interlinked road nework, Abia State University Teaching Hospital site is in triangular shape and has between Eziukwu Road, Jubilee and Asa road, all in Abia South local government area. The site is now fully constructed and some of the department in hospital has gone over like maternity and children’s ward, and also accommodation of officers building are fully constructed.


1.2 Aims And Objectives Of The Study

The following are the objectives of the study

  1. To determine if there is any significant increase in the average number of patients suffering from malaria.
  2. To determine whether there is a relationship existing among or between the average people suffering from typhoid, malaria and cholera and the approach to these illness.
  3. To determine this illness and suggest possible remedy or solution.
  4. To check whether the illness is on the increase or decrease rate to determine appropriate measure to right against this illness.

1.3 Significance Of The Study

The significance of this research is to give solution to
these illnesses:

  1. Through this research, hospital management can forecast and prevent such diseases.
  2. The research will indicate the basic pattern of growth when that will be used for the estimation.
  3. The work will provide information to the federal government on how to approach this disease in the future.
  4. This research ill help the ministry of health to know the age bracket that is likely to suffer this disease and the cause to look into it and adopt prevention methods.

1.4 Statement Of The Problems

The researcher is concerned about problems encountered by patients admitted into Abia State Univeristiy Teaching Hospital, Aba. The researcher primary aim is to obtain the following question:

  1. Does the mean number of people who suffer malaria within the years under study.
  2. Does the mean numbers of patients suffering cholera within the year of study.
  3. If there is any relationship in the number of people who suffered typhoid under the year of study.

1.5 Statement Of Hypothesis

The years of study

  • H0: There is no significant in the mean number of patient suffering cholera within the year of study.
  • H1: There is significant in the mean number of patient suffering cholera within the year of study.

1.6 Purpose Of The Study

The purpose of this research or study is to investigate whether the occurrence of these diseases follows a particular pattern over the years, at the period of this research in Abia State Teaching Hospital, Aba, no investigation has been carried out in this study for this reason, the researcher choose to research on this topic.


1.7 Limitation Of The Study

During the collection of data from the hospital, numerous problem were encountered which include lack of fund and time consuming and also the availability of the necessary data.


1.8 Scope Of The Study

This study is restricted to Abia State University Teaching Hospital, Aba, and it covers a period of tight years. The study would have covered up to three hospitals namely: Medical hospital, but due to time factor and other arising problems, the study is restricted to a sample, one third of the three hospitals.


Chapter Five


5.0 Conclusion and Recommendation

5.1 Introduction

This chapter deals with findings, conclusions and will be concluded with recommendation.

Findings
  1. From the time series conducted in which the trend value was used, is indicated that there is an annual decrease in the number of people who suffer from malaria, typhoid, and cholera.
  2. From t – distribution test, it is confirmed that there is no significant different in the mean number of patients who suffered form cholera.
Other Findings

The researcher observed certain reasons for the diseases

  1. The decrease in malaria, typhoid, and cholera may be due to from medical given by the government.
  2. A lot of people may decide to attend private own hospital, since it belived that private hospital gives special care to their patients,
  3. The decrease in malaria may be due to the newly introduced “an drugs” in which help to fight the illness.
  4. The decrease in typhoid may be due to the introduction of these anti-drugs that combat with bacillus.
  5. Environmental sanitation helps to prevent malaria and thus decrease in the disease proper self hygiene necessitate such decrease in cholera.

5.2 Conclusion

The following conclusions are drawn based on the analysis of data and findings. We concluded that they are significant different in the mean number of patients who suffered from malaria and typhoid within the year under study. But there is no significant difference in the mean number of patients who suffered from cholera within the period under study.

From the above findings, we may say that the trend been on the decrease does not conclusively show that the health problem in the state is reduced. Rather much is needed to be done to ensure good health to a inhabitants of the state.


5.3 Recommendation

The researcher would like to make the following recommendation to the administrators of Abia State University Teaching Hospital Aba and the government.

Hospital authorities should see that teaching hospital will organize enlightment programme on the need to have a regular routine check up against disease in the state.


Time Series Analysis Of People Suffering From Malaria, Typhoid And Diohrea (A Case Study Of Abia State University Teaching Hospital, Aba)


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