Time Series Analysis On Patient Attendance (A Case Study Of Hajiya Gambo Sawaba General Hospital Kofar Gayan, Zaria)
The aim of this project is to examine the trend at which patients attends the hospital over the period of study. The study therefore, shows the usefulness of statistics to medicine and hence advice had always been sought by medical and health administrators from the Department of Statistics on the analysis and interpretation of medical data.
The work is presented in five chapters.
- The first chapter being the introduction.
- The second chapter is the review of related literature where views of various writers on the topic concerned were analyzed.
- Chapter three is the research methodology, it examine the various research methods and procedure used in the data collection, it also highlight the techniques for data collections,
- The historical and survey research method were adopted, all the data collected were presented and analysed in chapter four.
- Finally, chapter five summaries the whole research work, conclusion were drawn from the study and suggestion / recommendation on how to improve health care delivery to the people.
Table Of Contents
- Title page
- Certification page
- Table of content
- 1.1 Introduction
- 1.2 Aims of Objective
- 1.3 Scope and Limitation
- 1.4 Historical Background of Source of Data
- 2.1 Literature Review
- 2.2 Statistical Tools
- 2.3 Definition of Basic Concept
- 3.1 Methodology
- 3.2 Method of Data Collection
- 3.3 Data Presentation
- 4.0 Computation and Data Analysis
- 5.1 Conclusion
- 5.2 Summary
- 5.3 Recommendation
University of Uyo Teaching Hospital since its inception in 1994 has received considerable amount of people, for treatment medical advice, family planning and a host of other reason. Different categories of people have patronized the hospital for its efficiency.
It is therefore in the best interest of the researcher to use his or her knowledge of statistic application is the attendance of ill health (patients) attending the hospital. It does not and here the research as will look forward to classifying, arranging and recording the monthly, quarterly, annual, bi-annual attendance of patients in the hospital.
In an attempt to introduce efficient methods and routine towards comparing the total attendance of, in and out patient this in general comprises of male, female and children patient attending the hospital.
To crown it all, it shall be in form of data (secondary, primary data) depending on the set of people wishing to use it and purpose or criterion behind using the research, the data collected will be analysis organized, summarized and compiled. Since hospital patronage is consistent and continuous process, it will be an efficient data collection, centres and will promote statistical application and voluminous data i.e. moving average and time series analysis.
1.2 Aims of Objective
- To determine whether there is an increase or decrease in patients’ attendance.
- To forecast the patient attendance by using linear trend method
- To forecast for patient attendance using the fitted trend equation from 2008 to 2012
1.3 Scope and Limitation
This research will limit it analysis on the comparison of the attendance of patient. (IN and OUT) based on secondary data collected from the hospital University of Uyo Teaching Hospital from (1994 to 2007).
Various Department of the Hospital
The hospital consists of nine (9) departments. The various departments include:
The Medical Director is the overall boss of the hospital. He is only answerable to the Akwa Ibom State Commissioner of Health. He is in charge of all medical cases.
Hospital secretary is the head of this department. He heads all the administrative staff of various departments of the hospital and all heads of department are under him and answerable them, as every head administered on his behalf.
Nursing Service Department:
The nursing service department is in charge with central of nurses, their posting, their duty roster, their shifting training to other post basic courses.
Medical Record Department:
This department deals with keeping record and collection of data.
Technologist works in the laboratory and for the operation of laboratories equipment.
The pharmaceutical department is in charge with the supply of drugs, drugs custody, drug protection and storage etc.
The radiology is in charge with x-ray e.g. chinstraps etc.
Ophthalmology department is in charge with all cases of eye, its treatment etc.
This department is in charge with all cases of ear.
As the year proceeds, the trend line shows that there is a gradual or rather rapid increase in number of patient’s attendance in general. Thus, it is been noticed that the trend for the year 2008 and 2012 increases every month and this indicates that if all necessary things are held constant (i.e. adequate water supply, proper sanitation, good food and health care delivery etc to the people). Their will be negative response that means the number of patients will reduce.
In another hand, the increase is due to the discovery of new disease and also reoccurring of the disease, which have been in existence.
Averagely, there was a continual increase of both IN and OUT – patient’s attendance at Hajiya Gambo Sawaba General Hospital from 1998 to 2007. The increase in number of patient’s attendance experienced by this hospital is not as a result of its inefficiency but as a result of newly discovered diseases such as aids and reoccurring of other existing ones.
In view, one can say that the attendance of patients could be large but rate of death occurring would be low, so in essence, the hospital is efficient in its treatment given to Zaria who turn up in this hospital.
The least square regression method is the most efficient for trend estimation. It is therefore recommended for use of any statistical analysis.
However, a conclusion has been drawn from the method that there was a continual increase in number of patients attendance in Hajiya Gambo Sawaba General Hospital from the year 1998 to 2007. This implies that are the year proceeds the number of patient attendance in the hospital increase. This shows that every year various disease are discovered and other existing once also re-occur so, therefore, the number of patients attendance will also increase as the year period.
At this point in time, the hospital medical health care authority are advised to find solution (cure) to newly existing diseases and also continue to give proper treatment to other existing once in order to reduce the rate of death in the hospital and the country as a whole.
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