Technical Consideration Of The Effect Of Solar Radiation On Nigeria

Technical Consideration Of The Effect Of Solar Radiation On Nigeria

Abstract

In this study, global solar radiation over Nigeria was simulated under an enhanced atmospheric CO2 level using the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) for the period 1981 to 2100 with ECHAM5 GCM as the lateral boundary conditions. The simulated seasonal global solar radiation bias for the RegCM3 with NIMET and NASA observed datasets in the control period are of similar magnitudes and showed a mixture of persistent positive and negative biases ranging between 10% and 30%.

The model generally underestimates solar radiation (biases 10% to 30%) across the whole country in most of the months. In addition, it overestimates radiation (biases +2–30%) over the northern region of the country. Alongside the present climate (1981–2010), three future periods were considered viz: period 1 (2011–2040), period 2 (2041–2070) and period 3 (2071–2100) for the potential future changes. The seasonal potential future changes in period 1 (i.e. potential future changes with respect to 2040) showed a reduction in the range of 0% (North) to 3.27% (South) whereas more reduction in global solar radiation is observed in period 2 (i.e. 2041–2070 minus present climate) having general decrease ranging from 0.11% to 3.39% with the least value in April (Middle-belt) and the largest in the South zone (March).

Potential future changes in period 3 (i.e. 2071–2100 minus present climate) is generally characterized with mixed increase and decrease in global solar radiation across the country than the previous two periods (1 and 2). For the annual potential future changes, RegCM3 model predicted a decrease in solar radiation towards the end of the century with more reduction found in the South zone and the least in the North region. Furthermore, future changes in global solar radiation across the zones in all the periods are however found to be insignificant at p6 0.01.

Table Of Content

Preliminary Page(s)

• Title page
• Certification page
• Dedication
• Acknowledgement
• Abstract
• Table of content

Chapter One

Introduction

• 1.1 Background Of Study
• 1.2 Statement Of The Problem
• 1.3 Aims And Objectives Of Study
• 1.4 Research Questions
• 1.5 Significance Of Study
• 1.6 Scope Of Study
• 1.7 Limitation Of Study
• 1.8 Definition Of Terms

Chapter Two

Literature Review

• 2.1 Introduction
• 2.2 Conceptual Review
• 2.3 Empirical Literature

Chapter Three

Methodology

• 3.1 RegCM3 regional model description
• 3.2 ECHAM5 general circulation model description
• 3.3 Observation data used for model validation
• 3.4 Simulation
• 3.5 Data analysis

Chapter Four

Results And Discussion

• 4.1 Control period
• 4.2 Future climate change
• 4.3 Potential future changes on solar radiation

Chapter Five

Conclusion And Recommendation

• 5.1 Conclusion
• 5.2 Recommendations
• References

Chapter One

1.0 Introduction

1.1 Background Of Study

Solar radiation (a renewable energy resource) has direct impact on energy generation in addition to agriculture and water resources. The energy resource was observed to be affected by climate changes induced by CO2 emissions (Pan et al., 2004). With enormous solar potential across Nigeria, a moderate seasonal effect of climate change can have significant socio-economic impacts; change of solar radiation in future climate is thus of considerable interest (Pan et al., 2004).

High resolution reliable projections of 21st century climate change are of great importance to assess related impacts on renewable energy resources (directly on solar energy and indirectly on wind and hydro power), human activities and natural ecosystem over the country. African countries are shown to be among the most vulnerable to climatic changes expected for the next decades of the 21st century due to increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (IPCC, 2007; Mariotti et al., 2011).

Furthermore, among African regions, West Africa is found as one of the world most exposed to the negative effects of climate variability (Tchotchou and Kamga, 2010). In Nigeria, Climate change is the latest challenge to sustainable human development and is leading to more frequent and more severe climate-related impacts that may deter efforts to achieve the country’s development objectives, including the targets of the Nigeria Vision 20:2020 and the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) NEST and Tegler, 2011; NASPA-CCN, 2011; the challenges being multifaceted (social, economic, environmental), its impact on infrastructure will be significant because infrastructure provides a critical platform for the effective functioning of the Nigerian economy (NEST and Tegler, 2011).

Climate change is also expected to negatively affect the already limited electrical power supply through impacts on the existing hydroelectric and thermal generation; service interruption is also expected to result from damage to transmission lines and substation equipment impacted by sea level rise, flash floods, and other extreme weather events (NASPA-CCN, 2011). Climate change was discussed in (Li et al., 2012) to have effect on weather parameters (wind speed, solar radiation, precipitation, mean temperature, maximum and minimum temperatures etc.) that constitute the renewable resources.

Several authors have also shown that potential climatic changes due to increased atmospheric greenhouse gases might affect the availability of renewable resources in West Africa in the future. However, changes (increase or decrease) in resource potentials resulting from climate change consequences may affect power generation from renewable energy resources and can consequently affect the potential contribution to future electricity output.

There is also the tendency of a reduction or increase in magnitude of the several weather parameters (global solar radiation, dry-bulb temperature (mean, maximum and minimum), relative humidity, precipitation, and wind speeds) that contribute to building comforts (through heat gain and loss in buildings) in the advent of a changing climate (Ohunakin et al., 2013).

However, study of the physical mechanisms underlying climate variability and the quantification of the relative contributions of each of the driving factors; require long time series of observations. The long range of observed data is a disability in West Africa because of the relatively few observation stations, and most times, poor quality of available data; these necessitate the use of climate models whose outputs constitute consistent datasets of atmospheric variables.

Climate models (global and regional circulation models) are thus the primary tools that aid in our understanding of the many processes that govern the climate systems (Pal et al., 2007). A number of simulations have been carried out using Global Circulation Models (GCMs).

Climate models with GCMs have been found to have difficulties reproducing various atmospheric variables of interest and thus generating unrealistic outputs (some examples are in the results as given in the following: Community Climate Model version 3-CCM3 in the work of (Jenkins and Mikovitz, 2003); Laboratoire de Me´te´orologie Dynamique (LMD) GCM and also the Centre for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere (COLA) GCM as reviewed in the work of (Tchotchou and Kamga, 2010).

1.2 Statement Of The Problem

The sun is the source of most energy on the earth and is a primary factor in determining the thermal environment of a locality. The challenge about technical consideration on the effect of solar radiation could be as a result of incompetency of the engineers that may not be able to make estimates of solar radiation intensity and know how to make simple solar radiation measurements. It could also be that the instruments that are used for solar radiation measurement are not accurate thereby leading to a false result. More also, inability to understand the thermal effects of solar radiation and knowing how to control or utilize them. Finally, the several researches has been carried out on the effect of solar energy but not even a single research has been carried out on the technical consideration of the effect of solar radiation in Nigeria.

1.3 Aims And Objectives Of Study

The main aim of the study is to examine technical consideration of the effect of solar radiation. Other specific objectives of the study include;

1. To determine the extent to which technical radiation affects solar radiation in Nigeria.
2. To determine the impact of technical consideration on solar radiation in Nigeria.
3. To determine the factors affecting technical consideration on solar radiation in Nigeria.
4. To proffer possible solutions to the problems.

1.4 Research Questions

1. What is the extent to which technical radiation affects solar radiation in Nigeria?
2. What is the impact of technical consideration on solar radiation in Nigeria?
3. What are the factors affecting technical consideration on solar radiation in Nigeria?

To proffer possible solutions to the problems.

1.5 Significance Of Study

The study on the technical consideration of the effect of solar radiation will be of immense benefit to the entire Nigeria in the sense that it will enable the solar technical engineers to be well equipped in order for them to be able to handle challenges of any sorts that has to do with solar radiation. The study will also educate the government to be fully aware of the kind of people they employ into this sector for the benefit of the citizens in the country. Finally, the study will contribute to the body of existing literature and knowledge to this field of studies and basis for further research.

1.6 Scope Of Study

The study on consideration of the effect of solar radiation is limited to Nigeria.

1.7 Limitation Of Study

Financial constraint

Insufficient fund tends to impede the efficiency of the researcher in sourcing for the relevant materials, literature or information and in the process of data collection (internet, questionnaire and interview).

Time constraint

The researcher will simultaneously engage in this study with other academic work. This consequently will cut down on the time devoted for the research work.

1.9 Definition Of Terms

Technical

Involving or concerned with applied and industrial sciences.

Consideration

Careful thought, typically over a period of time.

Effect

A change which is a result or consequence of an action or other cause.

Solar Radiation

Is radiant energy emitted by the sun, particularly electromagnetic energy.

Chapter Five

Conclusion And Recommendation

5.1 Conclusion

Basic findings of the effect of climate change on solar radiation in Nigeria as simulated by the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) driven by ECHAM5 GCM are concluded below:

1. The simulated seasonal global solar radiation bias forthe RegCM3 with NIMET and NASA observations in the control period (1981–2010) are of similar magnitudes and showed a mixture of persistent positive and negative biases ranging between 30% and +30%. Negative biases (approximately 10% to 30%) are found to be more dominant across the whole country in most of the months. The North region of the country being characterized by the desert climate is typically depicted with positive biases in the range of 2–30%.
2. The influence of relatively cool moist air from the oceanand the increased cloud cover over the coastal region due to the movement of the south-westerly winds from the ocean is also observed to be responsible for the positive biases in global solar irradiance exhibited by the model in the south coast over the Atlantic Ocean.
3. Increasing cloudiness is predicted for the future and thisis believed to be responsible for the decrease in the global solar irradiance. However, information about changes in aerosol properties from the climate runs was not available. This information is thus needed from future climate model runs to better assess changes in the solar irradiance and its components of direct and diffuse fluxes. The model further indicates future warming to the end of the 21st century.
4. RegCM3 further gave a consistent significant change in temperature over the country resulting from global warming while future changes in global solar radiation across the zones was reduced. However, then note that the differences in solar fluxes were insignificant. RegCM3 predicted a reduction in solar radiation across the zones in all the periods; less reduction in global solar radiation is observed in the late 21st century across the zones than in the early century (periods 1 and 2).

5.2 Recommendations

In this study, the performance of each set of equations in terms of contributing effect of precipitation and relative humidity was also investigated. It was observed that equations involving relative humidity have better potential GSR prediction than other empirical equations involving precipitation as indicated by their respective NSE values and other statistical indicators. This suggests that both climatological and geographical factors should be considered significant in the development of any scheme for the simulation of global solar radiation. This modification on the Angstrom-Prescott model have brought a significant improvement on the accuracy of the simulated results as can be observed in this study. Finally, this equation when compared with other schemes, had been found to have the highest NSE value of 0.573, lowest standard deviation of 0.13978, and highest correlation coefficient of 0.75 and a low SEE of 0.0068. Hence, it is recommended for the simulation of annual global solar radiation in Nigeria.

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