The Impact Of Climate Change On Agricultural Productivity

Project and Seminar Material for Agricultural Science Students

The Impact Of Climate Change On Agricultural Productivity


Abstract


Climate change is a global phenomenon that has greater impacts on productivity through agricultural crop production, livestock production, energy and tourism. Countries all over the World have put adequate measures in place to combat or reduce its effects. This paper analyzed the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity in Nigeria. The paper did answer two specific objectives; to determine the effect of climate change on crop production and to evaluate the effect of climate change on livestock production in Nigeria. The study adopted time-series data on all the variables under study. Even though some studies considered the impacts of climate on crop production and on livestock production none actually considered the simultaneous effect on agricultural crop and livestock production. The study employed Ricardian Regression Model to analyze time-series data. A diagnostic research design was employed to carry out the study as it explored secondary sources of data which was analyzed using multivariate regression model and Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) was carried out to check the stationary of the data. The variables considered for the study were crop production and livestock production as dependent variables while temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity as independent variables. The data for crop production and livestock production were obtained from economic surveys (KNBS) ministry of agriculture and International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) while temperature, rainfall and relative humidity from Nigeria Metrological Department and World Bank. The study found out that temperature and relative humidity significantly affect agricultural productivity. Relative humidity was found to be positively related to agricultural productivity, temperature has negative relationship. The study recommended that government should sensitize the farmers on the need to carry out smart agriculture to reduce losses as a result of climatic change. The study also found out that rainfall positively related to agricultural productivity. Therefore, the study concluded that indeed climate change affect agricultural productivity in Nigeria.


Table of Content


  • Title Page
  • Certification
  • Dedication
  • Acknowledgement
  • Table of Content
  • List of Tables
  • Abstract

Chapter One:

Introduction

  • 1.1 Background of the Study
  • 1.2 Statement of the Problem
  • 1.3 Objective of the Study
  • 1.4 Research Questions
  • 1.5 Research Hypothesis
  • 1.6 Significance of the Study
  • 1.7 Scope of the Study
  • 1.8 Limitation of the Study
  • 1.9 Definition of Terms
  • 1.10 Organisations of the Study

Chapter Two:

Review of Literature

  • 2.1 Conceptual Framework
  • 2.2 Theoretical Framework
  • 2.3 Empirical Review

Chapter Three:

Research Methodology

  • 3.1 Introduction
  • 3.2 Research Design
  • 3.3 Theoretical Framework
  • 3.4 Model Specification
  • 3.5 Definitions and Measurement of Variables
  • 3.5.1 Definition of variables used in the Study
  • 3.6 Data Type and Source
  • 3.7 Time Series Property Tests
  • 3.7.1 Unit root test
  • 3.7.2 Co-integration test
  • 3.8 Data Analysis

Chapter Four:

Data Presentation and Analysis

  • 4.1 Introduction
  • 4.2 Descriptive Statistics
  • 4.3 Time Series Analysis Results
  • 4.3.1 Unit Root Test
  • 4.3.2 Correlation Test
  • 4.3.3 Co-integration Tests Results
  • 4.4: Diagnostic Test Results
  • 4.4.1: Serial Correlation LM Test
  • 4.4.3 Ramsey RESET Test
  • 4.5. Regression Analysis Findings
  • 4.5.2 Effect of Climate Change on Livestock Production
  • 4.5.3 Effect of other variable on agricultural productivity in Nigeria

Chapter Five:

Summary, Conclusion and Recommendation

  • 5.1 Introduction
  • 5.2 Summary of the study
  • 5.3 Conclusion of the study
  • 5.4 Recommendation
  • REFERENCES

Chapter One


Introduction

1.1 Background of the Study

Climate change is significantly acknowledged as shortcomings in global prosperity in human development. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007), note that the rise in climate changes indeed affect the growth of humanity in terms of social, economic and human welfare of various countries since the world‟s economies are connected via trade and capital flows. The notion that atmosphere knows no boundaries makes international cooperation to curb greenhouse gases essential to ensure prosperity for human and economic development.

Combating climate changes has become one of the key global development priorities. The institutional framework for such cooperation is provided by the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) which became operational ten years ago and was known as Kyoto Protocol in1997. The Protocol is one of the most complex treaties ever negotiated (UNFCCC, 2015). During the conference, some legally binding targets for the world‟s wealthier countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions were agreed upon. These targets could be achieved through domestic efforts of each individual country. The greenhouse gases (GHG) could also be reduced through some flexible mechanisms which were set out such as joint implementation (JI), the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), and international emissions trading (IET), IPCC (2015). Geographically, emissions of GHG is environmentally irrelevant, combating climatic change need to take into account cross countries by taking credit for overseas actions that curb GHG emissions at source or enhance the removal of GHGs by sinks (Rechard, 2009).
Because of its multifunctional nature, the agricultural sector has a multiplier effect on any sector’s socioeconomic and industrial fabric (Ogen 2007). It has the ability to serve as an industrial and economic springboard for the country’s development (Stewart 2000). This sector continues to be the primary source of income for the majority of rural communities in developing countries in general. Agriculture employs more than 60% of the African population and accounts for over 30% of the continent’s Gross Domestic Product (Kandlinkar and Risbey 2000). Rain-fed farming dominates agricultural production in Sub-Saharan Africa, accounting for around 97% of total farmland and subjecting agricultural productivity to considerable seasonal rainfall variability (Alvaro et al. 2009). Agriculture is the primary source of food and employment in Nigeria, employing approximately 60-70 percent of the population (Mayong et al. 2005). It is an important sector of the economy, providing raw materials for processing businesses as well as foreign exchange profits for the country (Mohammed-Lawal and Atte 2006). Because agriculture in Nigeria is primarily rain-fed, any change in climate is bound to have an influence on agricultural production in particular, as well as other socioeconomic activities in the country. However, the impact could be quantified in terms of crop growth, soil water availability, soil erosion, pest and disease incidence, sea level rises, and soil fertility decline (Adejuwon 2004). Climate change has become a greater threat not just to the sustainable development of any nation’s socioeconomic and agricultural operations, but to the entire human life (Adejuwon 2004). The effect of climate change, as further stated by the UNFCCC, implies that the local climate variability to which people have previously experienced and adapted is changing, and this change is occurring at a rather rapid rate.


1.2 Statement of the Problem

Climate change poses a challenge to agricultural production that extends beyond crop husbandry to encompass livestock and, indeed, the entire agricultural sector. African farmers rely on livestock for revenue, food, and animal products as well. Ehui, Nin (Benin 2007). Climate can have an impact on livestock both directly and indirectly (Adams et al. 1999; Manning and Nobrew 2001). Climate variables such as air, temperature, humidity, wind speed, and other climate parameters have direct affects on animal performance such as growth, milk production, wool production, and reproduction. Climate can also influence the amount and quality of feed, such as grass, forage, and grain, as well as the severity and distribution of livestock diseases and parasites (Niggol and Mendelsohn 2008). As a result, agricultural productivity is used to examine the entire agricultural sector. Rainfall is by far the most important aspect of climate change in Nigeria and the country’s water resources potential (Adejumo 2004). The northeast region of Nigeria is rapidly becoming an arid environment, owing to a rapid drop in the amount of surface water, flora and fauna resources on land (CGIAR) (2008). A consistent decrease in rainfall reduces the natural regeneration rate of land resources (Fasona and Omojola 2005). This causes people to use additional previously unexplored territories, resulting in forest loss and an increase in sand dunes/Aeolian deposits in Nigeria’s northern axis. Climate change is the most serious issue confronting the planet today. According to some, it is a more significant threat than global terrorism (King 2004). The southern region of Nigeria, which is famed for its heavy rainfall, is currently experiencing erratic rainfall, and temperatures in the country’s Guinea Savannah zone are progressively rising. Furthermore, the northern zone is threatened by desert expansion (FME 2004). Climate change has an impact on food and water resources, which are crucial for livelihoods in Africa, where many people, particularly the poor, rely on local supply networks that are vulnerable to climate change. Disruptions to current food and water systems will have disastrous consequences for development and livelihood. These are projected to exacerbate the already-existing barriers to poverty eradication posed by climate change (De Wit and Stankiewicz 2006). According to CGIAR (2008), the ability of the environment to offer all life support systems and materials for meeting all developmental objectives of humans and animals is based on the suitability of the climate, which is always changing. The impact of these developments is threatening Nigeria’s food security. The study investigates agricultural production trends and assesses the impact of climate change on agricultural output.


1.3 Objectives of the Study

The general objective of the study is to determine the effect of climate change on agricultural productivity. The specific objectives of the study are;

  1. To determine the effect of climate change on agricultural crop production
  2. To investigate the effect of climate change on livestock production

1.4 Research Questions

The study will seek to respond to the following questions;

  1. What is the effect of climate change on Agricultural crop production?
  2. What is the effect of climate change on livestock production?

1.5 Research Hypothesis

The study will test the validity of the following null hypothesis:

  • H01: There is no significant effect of climate change on agricultural crop production.
  • H02: There is no significant effect of climate change on livestock production

1.5 Significance of the Study

This study will be of great relevance to students, researchers, and agricultural science teachers across Nigeria as the study will serve as a source of information for them for research and study purposes. Also, farmers in all regions of Nigeria will find this study useful as the study discusses and uncovers the challenges imposed by climate change on agricultural productivity. The recommendation found in the last chapter of this study will also educate farmers on the best ways to manage climate change to avoid major impacts on crops.


1.7 Scope of the Study

This study focuses on ascertaining whether there is any relationship between climate change and agricultural productivity. Weather high temperatures result in an increase in agricultural productivity and weather poor high rain destroys agricultural activities and productivity. The study will therefore be limited to farms in Ebonyi State, Nigeria.


1.8 Limitation of the Study

The major limitations to the study are insufficient funding to involve many respondents in this research and carry out other logistics required in this study. Also, the time factor was another constraint where the researcher had to share available time between academic work and conducting this research within the given time frame.

Inadequate materials needed for the success of this study was another factor that limited this study. The sources of literature and the conducting of interviews in order to validate this research posed a barrier to the researcher.


1.8 Definition of Terms

Climate:

Climate is the long-term average of weather, typically averaged over a period of 30 years. More rigorously, it is the mean and variability of meteorological variables over a time span spanning from months to millions of years.

Climate Change:

This includes both global warming driven by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases and the resulting large-scale shifts in weather patterns.

Agriculture:

This is the act of practicing farming, including cultivation of the soil for the growing of crops and the rearing of animals to provide food, wool, and other products.


1.10 Organization of the Study

This research work is organized in five chapters, for easy understanding, as follows.

  1. Chapter one is concern with the introduction, which consist of the (overview, of the study), historical background, statement of problem, objectives of the study, research hypotheses, significance of the study, scope and limitation of the study, definition of terms and historical background of the study.
  2. Chapter two highlights the theoretical framework on which the study is based, thus the review of related literature.
  3. Chapter three deals on the research design and methodology adopted in the study.
  4. Chapter four concentrate on the data collection and analysis and presentation of finding.
  5. Chapter five gives summary, conclusion, and recommendations made of the study.

Chapter Five


Summary, Conclusion and Policy Recommendation

5.1 Introduction

The chapter comprise of the summary, conclusion, policy recommendation and areas for further studies.


5.2 Summary of the Study

The study evaluated the effect of climate change on agricultural productivity in Nigeria for a period 2005-2021. Nigeria continues to strive to achieve food security as enshrined in sustainable development goals of 2015. The study presented an empirical result which provided the effect of climate change on agricultural productivity yielding a negative result for both crop and livestock production. The first objective of the study was to determine the effect of climate change on agricultural crop production and the second objective was to investigate the effect of climate change on livestock production in Nigeria. The results of the first objective show that crop production is negatively affected by changes in climatic conditions, the same results were obtained by the second objective.

Diagnostic tests were carried out at 5 per cent where rainfall was found to be stationary at level while temperature, relative humidity, log crop production and log of livestock production were stationary at first difference. Intuitively, the findings reviled that moderate level of temperature and rainfall would results to increase in crop and livestock production.

The objectives of the paper were met by carrying out regression analysis. The regression results for both the objectives yielded a negative relationship between the dependent and independent variables, leading to the conclusion that adverse climatic changes affect crop and livestock negatively in Nigeria.


5.3 Conclusion of the Study

The first objective of the study was to determine the effect of climate change on agricultural crop productivity. To achieve this objective a unit root and diagnostic tests of all the variables on time series data for the period running from 2005-2021 was conducted. Multiple regression analysis was carried out using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) Model on the four key variables; crop production and/or livestock production, relative humidity, average temperature, average rainfall. The results from the analysis showed that coefficient of relative humidity and average temperature were of the expected sign and their p values showed that they were of significant for the study. Relative humidity have positive coefficient to agricultural productivity while average temperature have a negative coefficient. Rainfall had a negative coefficient showing that adverse changes in rainfall amount a decrease in crop and livestock production. This means therefore, that changes in temperature, rainfall and humidity greatly affect crop productivity in Nigeria.

The second objective of the study is to evaluate the effect of climate change on livestock productivity. Table 4.12 in chapter 4 shows results of the regression analysis to achieve this objective. Even though relative humidity and average temperature are still significant, average temperature has more effect on livestock production than relative humidity because temperature causes decrease in livestock production in terms of reproduction, lactation and meat quality. At a given point in time the country has experienced drought and this point to a changing climate pattern. Livestock production is normally under threat to this ever changing climate pattern in Nigeria. This is because the natural grass that the livestock heavily rely for feed drying up and quality and quantity fluctuates every year.

In addition to this available water sources are drying up and therefore not available due to high temperature and unreliable rainfall experienced in Nigeria over the years. In North and North-Eastern parts of Nigeria, a number of livestock have been lost as a result of excessive thermal stress, inadequate rainfall, insufficient natural and artificial feeds and a number of diseases due to high temperatures. From this it is now clear that livestock production is very sensitive to climatic changes in Nigeria and therefore the study concludes that climate change has effect on livestock production. The study has satisfactorily achieved the two specific objectives; therefore, the study concludes that indeed climate change has effect on agricultural productivity in Nigeria.


5.4 Recommendation.

The main objective of this study was to determine the effect of climate change on agricultural productivity in Nigeria. The study found out that climate change affect agricultural productivity.

From the findings the following recommendations are made; the government needs to carry out sensitization program awareness on cause, impact, mitigation and adaptation to climate change. Given that the findings shows that temperature is significant in the study, therefore, drought tolerant livestock and crop varieties need to be given to farmers at a subsidized price to resist effect of climate change and also encourage scientific research on crop and livestock varieties that adapt to climate change to boost yield in agriculture to achieve objective one and two of the study.

The government should also encourage smart agriculture where farmers do not rely on rain feed agriculture but on scientific agriculture in order to achieve objective two of the study. For this to succeed, the government should supply farmers with drought resistant seeds and livestock variety to increase production and maintain food security in Nigeria as this is one the key pillars of four agenda of Jubilee government since the results show that climate change affect agricultural productivity hence mitigation, adaptation and resilience agriculture would increase crop and livestock production in Nigeria hence ensuring food security.


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