Analysis Of Road Traffic Crash

Project and Seminar Material for Geography

Analysis Of Road Traffic Crash


The phenomenon of road traffic crash along Abuja-Lokoja highway has been a source of concern in view of the loss of life and its socio-economic consequence. Many Nigerians utilizes different transport modes to reach their various destinations on a daily basis. Nearly 3000 people are killed on Nigerian roads annually. This translates to approximately 68 deaths per 10,000 registered vehicles, which is 30-40 times greater than in highly motorized countries. Abuja has one of the highest road fatality rates in relation to vehicle ownership in Nigeria, with an average of 7 deaths from the 35 road crashes that occur each day. Despite the huge burden the major causes of accidents in Abuja, have not been modeled so as to outline the major causes and their inter-relatedness. Current interventions are sporadic, uncoordinated and less effective despite the huge economic burden exerted by RTCs. This study sought to explore the major causes that were likely to contribute to road traffic crashes in Abuja. This was to be achieved using suitable techniques whose performances were subsequently analyzed. The study utilized accident data between the years 2000-2014 obtained from Abuja Traffic Police department. Poisson and the negative regression models were used to identify the main risk factors and model that performed better with the traffic data in Abuja. The results indicated that the negative-binomial model (R2:0.6691, AIC: 1714.7) outperformed the Poisson model (R2: 0.5991, AIC: 2433.1 ) as on this occasion was concluded as robust model for the prediction of RTCs in Abuja. In both models drivers, pedal. Cyclists, pedestrians and passengers significantly contributed to RTCs and thus policy measures should be formulated with them in mind.

Chapter One


1.1 Background to the Study

Transportation has liberated man and makes him more mobile, his increasing reliance on vehicular movement has conferred great facilities on him and his activities. The greatest culprit of all the modes of transport is road of which traffic crash is the most disturbing repercussion of its use (Sumaila, 2013). Globally, the phenomenon of Road Traffic Crash (RTC) is one of the leading causes of death. Annually, at least 1.2 million people die and 50 million are injured in RTC, a scale of death comparable to malaria and tuberculosis (World Health Organisation (WHO) 2005). More than 85% of these casualties occur in the low and middle income countries.

Road traffic crash imposes a huge burden on developing countries amounting to 1-2% of GNP in most countries. This estimate takes account of only the direct economic cost mainly lost to productivity, rather than the full social costs often recognized by industrialized countries, its effect among the poor can be unequal. In low and middle income countries, poor people like pedestrian, cyclists and motorcyclists are usually vulnerable to RTC. They are of particular risks from the greater variety and intensity of traffic mix and the lack of separation from other road users. In Kenya, pedestrians and passengers in mass transit accounted for 80% of all fatalities and in Mumbai (India), 78% of road fatalities were pedestrians (WHO, 2005)

Most of the road accidents lead to fatalities or serious disabilities which disenfranchise many families. In addition, family members are plunged into poverty because of the loss of their usual breadwinner through death or the high costs incurred in medical costs (WHO, 2009). Therefore, relevant authorities in the transportation sector need to make an effort and enact policies or measures that would significantly reduce the impacts of road accidents including fatalities, disabilities, morbidity and the related costs of medical expenses associated with preventable road accidents.

Most players in the transport sector blame the bad state of the Nigerian roads for the numerous accidents. With the recent improvement of infrastructure however, fatal road accidents continue to be reported. This elicited varied reactions from transport authorities in Nigeria including the ban on night travel on all Public Service Vehicles until they met the stated requirements of the government. Public Service Vehicles operators have protested this move claiming that the government has been insensitive about their needs. The blame game between transport authorities and PSV operators continues even though the much has been done to curb the number of road accidents.

Traffic police has also been on the receiving end following their role in reducing road accidents. Corruption has been cited as one of the reasons the traffic police have failed to arrest the drivers found to have infringed on the regulations of road use. Policies developed based on the comprehensive statistical models are likely to lead to the development of a competitive transportation network that will enhance Nigeria’s role as a hub in East Africa.

1.1.1 Road Transportation in Abuja

Abuja is the capital city of Nigeria hosting national government ministries, businesses and numerous economic activities. It is also an important economic hub for Eastern and Central Africa. The population of Abuja has experienced a significant growth since the year 2009 when it was at 3,138,000 (Population and Housing Census, 2009). The city’ population continues to grow at the rate of 4.0%. Abuja had 1, 214. 5 kilometers of roads in 2006 of which 972 kilometers were paved while the remaining 178 were earth gravel roads. Continued urban sprawl has increased transportation in the city with a large population relying on public transport system, which has been marked with unstructured operations due to poor monitoring.

Many organizations in Abuja structure their work hours between 8.00 a.m. and 5.00 p.m. This system has caused a scramble among the people trying to access their workstations or job opportunities within the set working hours. This has led to rapid growth in non-conventional means of public transport comprising of minibuses, taxis and more recently by commercial motorcycles. Most of these means are notorious for flouting traffic rules resulting to externalities such as accidents, congestion and corruption. KIPPRA (2015: 1) estimates that in 2013 there were 2 million registered vehicles in Nigeria and 60% were used in Abuja. The distance of the road network in Abuja as in 2012 was about 58,000 kilometers long (KRB, 2012), with an approximate 1.2 million vehicles using these roads.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

Road accidents are among the leading cause of death and disability in Nigeria. Nearly three thousand people die annually because of accident related activities. This translates to approximately 68 deaths per 10,000 registered vehicles, which is 30-40 times greater than in highly motorized countries. Research indicates that about seven people die out of thirty-five road crashes that occur each day in Abuja. Despite the huge economic burden exerted by RTCs, the major causes of accidents in Abuja have not been descriptively analyzed and modeled to outline the major causes and their interrelatedness. This emphasizes the need to comprehensively understand the major causes of these accidents. This study therefore intends to utilize generalized linear models to explore the major causes of road traffic accidents in Abuja that will help in minimizing loss of lives through road accidents.

1.3 Study Objectives

1.3.1 General Objective

To analyze the major causes of road accidents in Abuja

1.3.2 Specific Objectives
  1. To identify the suitable technique to model the injuries arising from road accidents in Abuja.
  2. To compare the results of models used in estimating the daily number of RTCs.

1.4 Significance of the Study

Researchers have been modeling RTCs with crash prevention models in various parts of the world. This has however not been done in Nigeria. It is essential to conduct research to establish the main causes of Road Accidents and come out with the reality on the ground so that, policy makers can design strategies that will effectively reduce the numerous deaths caused by Road Traffic Accidents to the barest minimum in the country. It is necessary to develop better prediction mechanism to plan for future occurrence. This will help ensure that resources are channeled to the right direction geared towards addressing the major cause of Road Traffic Accidents (RTCs) as many causes have overtime been attributed to causing accidents in Abuja. It will also aid in policy formulation that would address the major causes of accidents thus reducing the number of deaths resulting from RTCs in Nigeria.

1.5 Scope

The study will be limited to roads in Abuja.

Chapter Five

Conclusions and Recommendations

5.1. Introduction

Based on study results, there is an urgent need to address the root causes of accidents in Abuja. Laws and regulatory frameworks should be formulated and enforced promptly to avoid losses caused by the occurrence of an accident.

5.2. Summary of Findings

The results attest that a robust model will be beneficial in so far as RTCs mitigation and prevention is concerned. Given the nature of data being handled, a parsimonious model should always be chosen. In this study the negative binomial was chosen given that our data was over-dispersed.

The study also concluded that the causes of RTCs in Abuja are multi-factorial and can be categorized into driver factors, vehicle factors and roadway factors. Driver factors relates to all proximate factors affiliated to the diver that may result to an accident occurring. Speeding is a leading cause of accidents and policy should be geared towards addressing driver behavior as it predisposes the driver and other road users to injury.

5.3. Recommendations

From the results and finding in the study this recommendations if implemented will significantly reduce the number of accidents in Abuja. Additionally, motor cyclists should undergo formal training on road safety; increase levels of road use awareness among pedestrians, enforce use of seatbelts and discourage carrying excessive passengers.

5.3.1. Recommendation to Abuja County

The public should be sensitized on safe practices on the roads. Bumps should be erected in regions with a high population density.

5.3.2. Recommendation to Planners and Policy Makers

RTCs require a collaborative approach in from different sectors so as to address RTCs in a holistic manner. Pedestrian’s walkways and pedal-cyclists lanes should be factored in road design. The government, the police, the health personnel and general public should be incorporated into preventive measures to be formulated. Road safety professionals should be trained, to monitor the magnitude, severity and burden resulting from RTCs in Abuja to counteract the paucity of evidence occasioned by insufficient data handling skills. City planning should incorporate all road users in mind and should focus more on the behavior and the setting. Law enforcement officers should also be trained on different important aspects of road safety.

5.3.3. Recommendations for Scholars

Future research should focus on the spatial modeling of road traffic crashes.

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