Adaptation Strategies To Climate Variability Among Arable Crop Farmers

Project and Seminar Material for Agricultural Engineering AE

Adaptation Strategies To Climate Variability Among Arable Crop Farmers


Abstract


This study examined the Adaptation strategies to climate variability among arable crop farmers. The study used multistage sampling technique and primary data were collected from 360 food crop farmers (i.e. 180 respondents were randomly selected from each selected state from the savanna and the rainforest agro-ecological zones that dominates the region). The analytical techniques involved descriptive and inferential statistics. Results of the multinomial logit analysis showed that household size negatively influenced the use of multiple crop varieties, land fragmentation (i.e. multiple farm plots), multiple planting dates and crop diversification. Age of household head had an inverse relationship with the choice and use of multiple crop varieties, land fragmentation (multiple farm plots), multiple planting dates and off-farm employment. Education had a negative effect on the choice and use of multiple crop varieties and multiple planting dates. Sex had positive influence on the choice and use of multiple crop varieties, multiple planting dates and off-farm employment but average distance had a positive relationship with the choice and use of land fragmentation. Tenure security positively influenced the choice and use of crop diversification but access to credit negatively correlated with multiple crop varieties, multiple planting dates and crop diversification. The stochastic frontier analysis showed that labour, farm size and other agrochemicals are highly significant at 1% level of probability in food crop production. The computed mean technical efficiency estimate was 0.84. The technical inefficiency model showed that land fragmentation (i.e. multiple farm plots) and multiple planting dates had significant positive relationship with technical inefficiency but years of climate change awareness and social capital had significant inverse relationship with it. The stochastic frontier profit function showed that rent on farm land and price of labour were highly significant at 1% level of probability. The computed average profit efficiency of the respondents was 0.67. The profit inefficiency model revealed that off-farm employment, multiple planting dates, crop diversification and education level had significant positive relationship with profit inefficiency but land fragmentation (i.e. multiple farm plots), years of climate change awareness and social capital had negative relationship with it. The factor analysis revealed that the major constraints to climate change adaptation among the arable farmers were public, institutional and labour constraints; land, neighbourhood norms and religious beliefs constraints; high cost of inputs, technological and information constraints; farm distance, access to climate information, off-farm-job and credit constraints; and poor agricultural programmes and service delivery constraints. The study, therefore, recommends, inter alia, proactive regulatory land use systems that will make food crop farmers to participate in a more secured land ownership system should be put in place to enhance their investment in climate change adaptation strategies that has a long-term effect. Morealso, Government and non-governmental organizations should help the farmers in the area of provision and/ or facilitate the provision of input-based adaptation strategies in the study area. Again, intensive use of already proven adaptation strategies at farm-level by the farmers at their present resource technology will still make them to reduce technical and profit inefficiencies by 16% and 33% respectively, in the study area.


Chapter One


1.0 Introduction

1.1 Background of the Study

Agriculture is one of the most important sector of the Nigerian economy which accounts for about 42% of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and over 70% of non-oil exports. It provides over 80% of the food needs of the country. About 70% of Nigerians live in rural area, and 90% of these are engaged in agriculture. This implies that agriculture is a key sector that stands to affect majority of Nigerians positively (Okolo, 2004). Despite its high contribution to the overall economy, this sector has been seriously facing challenges of many factors of which climate-related disasters such as drought and floods are the major ones (Deressa, 2008). According to Udofia (2001), the frightening effects of climate variability on the entire environment has reached a global dimension. Although its effects and the ecological and economic consequences are well perceived, they appear not to have been given the serious attention they deserve.

Climate is defined as the statistical description interms of mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. The classical period is 30yrs as defined by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO, 1992).These quantities are most often surface variables such as temperature, precipitation, and wind. The difference between climate and weather is that climate is what you expect while weather is what you get. The term climate variability denotes the natural characteristics of climate that manifests itself within the changes of climate with regards to time. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001) defines climate variability as “variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all temporal and spatial scales beyond that ofindividual weather events”. This definition allows the consideration of climate change as a low frequency component of climate variability that can be managed using the same quantitative tools and research approaches (Mertz and Stone, 2003). Climate variation can enhance or diminish a local area’s comparative advantage in agriculture.

Changes in soil water availability, the increased occurrence of climate fluctuation, climate extremes and crop diseases, could lead to an overall reduction in crop yield and serious food shortage. Projections suggest that by the end of the 21stcentury, climate variability would have had substantial impact on crop production (Slater et al 2007). Humanity cannot accurately predict what the next season will bring but farmers, input suppliers, marketers and government would all like to know because it is critical to decision making. Climate variability has created uncertainties in temperature, rainfall and wind patterns. As a result, rural people in countries like Nigeria whose main occupation or economic activity is agriculture, are faced with so many challenges in decision making with respect to their agricultural activities ( Barnwal and Kotani, 2010).

Climate variability adaptation methods according to Nyong, Adesina and Osman-Elasha (2007) are those strategies that enable the individual or the community to cope with or adjust to the impacts of the change in climate. Although, Zeirvogel et al (2008) had noted that the world has been undergoing series of adaptation in response to climate variability; the current climate change is expected to present heightened risk, new combinations of risks and potentially grave consequences. As such, adaptation has been identified as a policy option to mitigate the adverse effects of climate variability on farm productivity. In agriculture, adaptation helps farmers achieve their food, income and livelihood security objectives in the face of changing climatic and socio-economic conditions including climatic variability, extreme weather conditions such as droughts, floods and volatile short term changes in local and large scale markets (Kandlinkar and Risbey, 2000).

Agricultural adaptation has been described as one of the policy tools to ameliorate the ravaging effects of climate variability ( Kurukulasuriya and Mendelsohn, 2008). Mendelsohn and Dinar reported in 1999 that from farm level analysis, large reductions in adverse impacts from climate variability are possible when adaptation is fully implemented (FAO, 2007). Some adaptation strategies for crop production among farmers include adoption of efficient environmental resources management practices such as the planting of early maturing crops, mulching, small scale irrigation, adoption of hardy varieties of crops, tree planting and staking to avoid heat burns (Nyong, et al, 2007). There are lots of challenges facing agricultural adaptation in Nigeria. According to Nzeh and Eboh (2011) lack of awareness and knowledge on climate variability is perhaps the biggest obstacle to effective agricultural adaptation. Onyeneke and Madukwe (2010) also opined other barriers to include lack of information on appropriate adaptation option, poor access to market and shortage of farm labour.

Apata et al (2010) reported that capital, land and labour serve as important factors for coping with adaptation, stressing that the lack of these factors as well as choice of suitable adaptive measures constitute severe challenge to agricultural adaptation. This is consistent with Deressa et al (2008) report that adaptation to climate variability is costly, and the need for intensive labour use exacerbate this cost. This therefore calls for development of various adaptation strategies in order to cope with the variability in climate. Such strategies focus on managing risks, reducing vulnerability, enhancing agricultural productivity, protecting the environment and ensuring sustainable development under the changing climate.


1.2 Statement of the Problem

Recent studies confirm that Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate variability and change and low adaptive capacity. Some adaptation to current climate variability has been taking place; however, this may be insufficient for future changes in climate (IPCC, 2007). The uncertainty associated with climate variability is a disincentive to investment and adoption of agricultural technologies and market opportunities, prompting the risk-averse farmer to favour precautionary strategies that buffer against climatic change, particularly as a result of increased variability and extreme over activities that are more profitable on average (Barrett et al, 2007). It has been predicted that many farmers in Africa are likely to experience net revenue losses as a result of climate change, particularly as a result of increased variability and extreme events (TerrAfrica, 2009).

The adverse consequences of climate variability includes damage on arable lands, livelihoods and biodiversity will take an irreplaceable toll on food production in developing countries like Nigeria which have a low capacity to cope and adapt to these challenges (Sha, Fischer van Velthuizen, 2009). Given the foregoing challenges a study of this nature will be a timely intervention. Many studies have been carried out in addressing the effects of climate variability on agriculture in Nigeria. However, not many of these studies have fully addressed the issues of adaptation strategies. Enete and Amusa (2011) discussed the challenges of agricultural adaptation to climate change in Nigeria, but the study was based on review of relevant literature thus leaving a gap for more empirical approach to the study of this issue.Enete and Amusa (2011) in another paper made further attempts to investigate the most cost-effective and sustainable indigenous climate change adaptation practices in South East Nigeria but studies covering wider area such as Nigerian agro-climatic zones and several arable crops simultaneously appear not to have been documented yet.

Umoh and Eketekpe (2010) attempted to study climate change adaptation measures by wetland farmers in Niger Delta region of Nigeria but did not study any other State beyond Bayelsa out of the nine States in the Niger Delta. The study focused only on a single Local Government Area. The study of Emaziye (2013) was based on perceptions of climate change among rural farming households in the Niger Delta area of Nigeria in other todetermine the direction of change of the climate change indicators thus leaving a gap for empirical studies on adaptation especially in Delta State where little or no work on adaptation strategies has been done. Previous studies showed that the dimensions of use of these measures have not been effectively explored particularly in Delta State. This is considered important, considering the fact that farmers least able to adapt to climate variability will suffer most severely.

In the light of this, this study has addressed the following research questions:

  1. What are the socio-economic characteristics of crop farmers?
  2. What is the perception of crop farmer’s about climate variability?
  3. What are the adaptation strategies adopted by farmers to mitigate the effects of climate variability?
  4. What socioeconomic and environmental factors influence farmers’ choice of adaptation strategies?
  5. What factors constrain farmers in adapting to the effects of climate variability?

1.3 Objectives of the Study

The main objective of the study was to determine the Adaptation strategies to climate variability by arable crop farmers in Delta State. The specific objectives were to:

  1. Describe the socio-economic characteristics of arable crop farmers in the study area.
  2. Ascertain farmers’ perception about climate variability on crop production.
  3. Examine adaptation practices adopted by arable crop farmers in the study area.
  4. Ascertain the factors that influence farmers’ choice of adaptation strategies.
  5. Determine the cost and return of adaptation strategies among arable farmers.
  6. Identify constraints to adoption of adaptation strategies by arable crop farmers .

1.4 Hypotheses of the Study

The following null hypotheses were tested:

  1. Socioeconomic factors do not influence use of climate change adaptation strategies by crop farmers;
  2. Institutional and farm-specific variables do not influence use of climate change adaptation strategies by food crop farmers;
  3. Climate change adaptation strategies do not influence technical efficiency incrop production in the study area; and
  4. Climate change adaptation strategies do not influence profit efficiency of food crop farmers in the study area.

1.5 Justification of the Study

The present inability of food crop production sector to meet the foods demand of Nigerians and the challenge posed by climate change and variability emphasized the need for the improvement of food crop farmers.

Failure to know the present food crop production efficiency (technical and profit) and the influence of climate change coping strategies on efficiency level of food crop production will inhibit designing and formulating appropriate policies to meet food crop production demands of the country. Developing economies can benefit much from inefficiency studies especially a type like this that incorporates farmers’ adaptation strategies to climate change to explain efficiencies.

The results of this study are expected to give direction for policy makers in designing appropriate public policies to increase agricultural productivity and mitigating effects of climate change on food crop production in Nigeria especially in the Southwestern zone. It will provide a useful guide to international and local donor agencies interested in climate change mitigation and adaptation in their provision of grants and funds for environmental and resource management studies. The results of this study will also help agricultural planners in the Agricultural Development Programmes (ADPs) and Ministries of Agriculture, Science and Technology; and Environment in the southwestern region and Nigeria as a whole and those states in the zone with Agro-climatological and Ecological zone study Units in their planning activities and providing useful weather data that will guide in planning public (or planned) adaptations to complement the farm-level (or autonomous) adaptation strategies.

Researchers are going to have a good resource base to look at climate change for further work. Farmers are also going to benefit by knowing those adaptation strategies to climate change that are more productive and efficiency-enhancing.


1.6 Limitations of the Study

The major limitation was on data collection. The enumerators elicited information from the respondents using interview schedule as against the supposed structured questionnaire. The respondents were interviewed all through because of the importance of the information the questionnaire to elicit. It was not self-administered as it is supposed of questionnaire but rather enumerator and researcher-administered (Eboh, 1998). This made the collection of data to take more time than necessary but the data were free of error due to omission of relevant information needed for the study.

Another limitation was the issue of finance for the data collection. This was overcome as the researcher sought for money to address this issue in order to still meet up with the set time for the data collection.


Chapter Five


Summary, Conclusion and Recommendations

5.1 Summary

This study examined the adaptation strategies to climate variability among arable crop farmers Southwestern Nigeria. A multi-stage random sampling technique was used to select 360 farm units (180 from savanna and 180 from the rainforest agro-ecological zones). Structured interview scheduled was used to obtain the required information from the selected food crop farm units.

Descriptive and relevant inferential statistics such as frequency, percentages, mean, line graph, standard deviation, likert-type rating technique, multinomial logit (MNL) model, stochastic frontier production and profit models, z-test, t-test, and factor analysis were used for data analysis. Socioeconomic, farm-specific and institutional characteristics of the food crop farmers and the climate change adaptation strategies used constitute the explanatory variables for the study. Possible constraints to climate change adaptation among food crop producing households were also identified.

Considering the socioeconomic characteristics of food crop producing households in the study area, greater percentage of about 50% of them fell between age range of 41-60years while their computed average age was about 53 years in the study area. In the savanna and the rainforest agro-ecological zones of the region, the greater percentage of about 57% and 43% fell between the age range of 41-60 years while their average age range was about 51 and 55 years, respectively. Male dominated food crop production in the study area, about 86% in the study area were male; about 84% and about 83% were male in the savanna and the rainforest agro-ecological zones of the region, respectively. Greater percentage of about 32% of the food crop farmers had primary education with average of about 8 years of formal education in the study area; while greater percentage of about 31% had secondary education with average of about 9 years of formal education and about 38% had primary education with average of about 8 years of formal education in the savanna and the rainforest agro-ecological zones, respectively. Greater percentage of about 48% the food crop producing households fell within the household size of 6 -10 with computed average of about 7 people; while greater percentage of about 46% with average of about 6 people and 49% with computed average of about 9 people fell between the household size between 6 – 10 in the savanna and the rainforest agro-ecological zones of the southwestern region, respectively. Majority of the respondents were married (about 92% in the whole region, 90% in the savanna AEZ and about 94% in the rainforest AEZ). About 27% of the respondents had extension contact that fell between 11- 15 times with computed average of about 8 contacts or visits in the cropping season; 30% with average of about 9 contacts or visits in the cropping year and about 24% with average of about 8 contacts or visits had extension contact that fell between 11- 15 times in the cropping season among the respondents in the Savanna AEZ and the Rainforest AEZ of the region, respectively.

Information on the farming systems practiced by respondents revealed that majority of about 37% were practicing mixed cropping in the region; while 39% and about 34% of the respondents from the two agro-ecological zones were practicing mixed cropping in the savanna and the rainforest agro-ecological zones of Southwestern Nigeria, respectively. On the issue of the farm size, it was revealed that the average food crop farm size was about 2 hectares in the study area. The estimated average output value of food crop farms was N506,010.00 for the whole study area while N463,066.30 and N548,937.20 for the savanna and the rainforest agro-ecological zones of the region, respectively. The estimated profit in naira from food crop production in the study area was N376,860.00; while for the savanna and the rainforest agro-ecological zones of the study area was N317,387.89 and N436,331.50, respectively.

The mean and standard deviation of the estimates of level of intensity of farm-level of climate change adaptation strategies used by food crop farmers in the study area for those categorized as very highly intensified were multiple crop types/varieties, land fragmentation, multiple planting dates and mulching; those estimated to be highly intensified were alternative fallow/tillage practices, and cover cropping. Multiple crop types/varieties strategy was very highly intensified both in the Savanna and the rainforest agro-ecological zones of Southwestern Nigeria. Majority of the food crop farmers of about 35% fell within the range of 6 -10 years of climate change awareness in the study area. Greater number of the respondents of about 44% and about 27% had awareness of climate change fell between the age range of 6-10 years in the Savanna and Rainforest agro-ecological zones, respectively.

On the information on climate change perception, the respondents perceived that there was higher temperature (about 34%), decreased rainfall (about 33%) and delayed/erratic rainfall (29%) in the study area.

In Southwestern Nigeria, the multinomial logit analysis showed that household size negatively influences the use of multiple crop types or varieties, land fragmentation, multiple planting dates and crop diversification. Age of household head had an inverse relationship with the choice and use of multiple crop types or varieties, land fragmentation, multiple planting dates and off-farm employment as climate change adaptation strategies in the study area. Years of education attained by the food crop farmers had a negative effect on the choice and use of multiple crop varieties and multiple planting dates as adaptation strategies. Sex (male-headed household) had positive influence on the choice and use of multiple crop varieties, multiple planting dates and off-farm employment but average distance had a positive relationship with the choice and use of land fragmentation in the study area. Tenure security positively influence the choice and use of crop diversification but access to credit negatively correlated with multiple crop varieties, multiple planting dates and crop diversification in the study area.

In the Savanna agro-ecological zone, the multinomial logit analysis showed that household size negatively influences the use of multiple crop types or varieties, land fragmentation, multiple planting dates and crop diversification. Years of education attained by the food crop farmers had a negative effect on the choice and use of multiple crop varieties as an adaptation strategy. Sex (male-headed household) had positive influence on the choice and use of multiple crop varieties, land fragmentation and off-farm employment. Tenure security positively influenced the choice and use of crop diversification but access to credit negatively related to crop diversification as a climate change adaptation strategy.

In the Rainforest agro-ecological zone, the multinomial logit analysis showed that household size negatively influences the use of multiple crop types or varieties, land fragmentation, multiple planting dates and crop diversification. Years of education attained by the food crop farmers had a negative effect on the choice and use of multiple planting dates, crop diversification and off-farm employment as climate change adaptation strategies. Sex (male-headed household) had positive influence on the choice and use of multiple crop varieties, land fragmentation, multiple planting dates, crop diversification and off-farm employment. Extension contact positively influenced multiple crop varieties, land fragmentation and crop diversification but average distance had a positive relationship with the choice and use of land fragmentation and multiple planting dates in the agro-ecological zone. Access to credit negatively correlated with multiple crop varieties, land fragmentation, multiple planting dates and crop diversification in the zone.

Maximum Likelihood Estimation was used to estimate technical efficiency in the study area and Stochastic Cobb-Douglass frontier Production models best fit the data. From the study, labour, farm size and other agrochemicals are highly significant at 1% level of probability for all the sampled food crop farmers and those (food crop farmers) from the Savanna agro-ecological zone of Southwestern Nigeria. While labour and farm size are significant at 1% level of significance for the sampled food crop farmers in the rainforest agro-ecological zone of Southwestern Nigeria. The computed mean technical efficiency estimate is 0.84 for both the food crop farmers in the whole study area and in the rainforest agro-ecological zone and 0.83 for those from the savanna agro-ecological zone of the region.

In the technical inefficiency model, for all the sampled respondents (full sample) the following variables, land fragmentation and multiple planting dates had significant positive relationship with technical inefficiency while years of climate change awareness, and social capital had significant inverse relationship with the technical inefficiency. In the savanna agro-ecological zone, land fragmentation and multiple planting dates had significant positive relationship with technical inefficiency while only social capital had significant indirect relationship with technical inefficiency. However, in the rainforest agro-ecological zone, off-farm income and education level had positive relationship with technical inefficiency while change in farm size and social capital had inverse relationship with the technical inefficiency.

Stochastic Cobb-Douglass frontier profit model was selected as the preferred model that better fits the data of food crop farmers. From the model, Maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters showed that cost of labour and farm size variables were highly significant at 1% level of probability for all the categories of the respondents. However, depreciation variable was significant at 10% level of probability for the sampled food crop farmers in the rainforest agro-ecological zone. The computed average profit efficiency of the respondents is 0.67 for the whole sampled food crop farmers; and 0.72 and 0.66 for the food crop farmers from the savanna and the rainforest agro-ecological zones, respectively.

The profit inefficiency model revealed that off-farm income, multiple planting dates, crop diversification, and education level had significant positive relationship with profit inefficiency while land fragmentation, years of climate change awareness, and social capital had significant inverse relationship with the profit inefficiency for the whole respondents (full sample). In the savanna agro-ecological zone, off-farm income, multiple planting dates and education level had significant positive relationship with profit inefficiency while land fragmentation, years of awareness of climate change and social capital had significant indirect relationship with profit inefficiency. However, in the rainforest agro-ecological zone, off-farm income, multiple planting dates and education level had positive relationship with profit inefficiency while land fragmentation, change in farm size, years of awareness of climate change and social capital had an inverse relationship with the profit inefficiency.

The simulated technical efficiency model revealed that land fragmentation has to be less used but off-farm employment and multiple planting dates should still be much more encouraged.

The factor analysis revealed that the constraints to climate change adaptation among the food crop farmers in the study area are public, institutional and labour constraints; land, neighbourhood norms and religious beliefs constraints; high cost of inputs, technological and information constraints; farm distance, access to climate information, off-farm-job and credit constraints; and poor agricultural programmes and service delivery constraints.


5.2 Conclusion

With the use of different climate change adaptation strategies, the farmers are still underutilizing their present resources and this make them to be both technically and profit inefficient. Right combination of different adaptation rather than using one of these strategies through their wealth of experience and making judicious use of their resources at the present technology level will make them to be more efficient.


5.3 Recommendations

There is need for putting in place policies and programmes that will make the food crop farmers to be proactive in the use of resources and at the same time adapting to climate change. Particularly the following recommendations are proffered:

There is need to make the food crop farmers participate in programmes that address adaptation policies in the country;

For food crop farmers to be more efficient technically and in profit making, government and non-governmental organizations should help them in the provision of input-based adaptation strategies (e.g. multiple crop varieties) so that their production and profit can be enhanced in the face of changing climate;

Proactive regulatory land use acts that will make food crop farmers to participate in more secured land ownership systems should be put in place for land tenants to benefit so that they can be able to invest and use sustainable adaptation strategies whose benefits come in subsequent years;

The extension programme aspect of climate change adaptation strategies policy in the Southwestern Nigeria should focus much more on the bottom-up participatory approach so that the indigenous and the emerging adaptation strategies and technologies can be focussed in the various agro-ecologies since climate differ across ecologies;

Government should focus on provision of functional credit facilities to help the food crop farmers in the area of climate change adaptation especially the input-based ones and/or government should make the financial environment conducive for private players to act because government cannot do everything; and

Institutional reforms or innovation that can make food crop farmers to relate socially with their fellow farmers especially in the same area or vicinity should be encouraged, since farmer-to-farmer extension paradigm can promote innovation faster than other form of extension methods.


5.4 Major Contribution to Knowledge

Despite the proliferation of research in this area, few studies have jointly analyzed efficiency and climate change adaptation. Efficiency and climate change adaptation studies had been undertaken in the past independent of each other but this study has integrated the two areas. This study determined efficiency (both profit and technical) by using climate change adaptation strategies as part of the explanatory variables (i.e. determinants of efficiency). It was shown that food crop farmers are inefficient technically and profit-wise. It shows that they are presently underutilizing their productive resources. This study elicited climate change adaptation strategies used in food crop production in Southwestern Nigeria and also determine the factors (extension contact, tenure security, access to credit and social capital) that influence their choice of use in the study area. Food crop production efficiency level can be improved as farmers combined more adaptation strategies at the present technology level in the study area.


5.5 Areas for Further Research

There is need to embark on further research in the following areas;

  1. Effects of climate change adaptation strategies on food crop production efficiency with emphasis on economic contents of efficiency through parametric and non-parametric approaches;
  2. Effects of climate change adaptation strategies on each food crop (yam, cassava, maize, cocoyam) production efficiency;
  3. Effects of climate change adaptation strategies on fish farming or aquaculture in the swampy areas of Southwestern Nigeria;
  4. Climate change adaptation strategies and food crop production efficiency in different agro-ecologies of Nigeria;
  5. Climate change and variability coping strategies and rural livelihood along the coastal region of Southwestern Nigeria; and
  6. Mobilizing local resources for adaptation and its effects on value chain in cottage food crop processing industries in Southwestern Nigeria.
  7. Effects of climate change on agricultural produce export in Nigeria

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